FEB 01 - Statistics That Can Determine A Super Bowl

Statistics That Can Determine A Super Bowl

Written by on February 1, 2017

Any football game can turn on a single play, but for the most part, it is what happens over the course of a game that decides who wins. When you look at the key statistics of the teams that make it to the Super Bowl, you tend to find that they excel in all those key areas. You need a little bit of luck along the way, but for the most part, it is doing the right things consistently that win you a championship. With Super Bowl 51 betting lines upon us, we thought it might be a good idea to look at the statistics that generally decide who wins. Sure, that one play may still end up being a factor, but the team that wins the following battles will be the one most likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.

Statistics That Can Determine A Super Bowl



A turnover at any time in a game can cause a momentum shift that is often difficult to recover from. Both of these teams have been winning the turnover battle all year, and both are in the top 3 in terms of turnover margin per game. In fact, both have the exact same turnover margin (+0.8) for the season, but it has been the Falcons who have been better in the last 3 games, posting a +1.7 margin versus the +1.3 posted by the Patriots. Both teams have the ability to get the ball back via the turnover, and this stat could be crucial.

3rd Down Conversion

Being able to extend drives by converting third downs is huge, especially when trying to keep a hot offense off the field. Both QB’s have been excellent on 3rd down this year, although it is Tom Brady who has the edge. Matt Ryan has been most efficient on 2nd down with a 124.2 QB rating, but that drops to 110.8 on 3rd. That’s still an impressive number, but it pales in comparison to Brady, who has been at his best on this crucial down, posting a 122.0 QB rating on 3rd down.

Red Zone Efficiency

This statistic could prove to be especially important in Super Bowl 51, especially given how potent these two offenses can be. You also have to consider that both defenses play a bend but don’t break style that should allow for big chunks of yardage to be picked up between the 20 yard lines. Both teams fell in the top 10 in offensive red zone scoring efficiency, with the Patriots going 63.7% and the Falcons 63.1%. The big difference between these two is the defensive red zone efficiency. The Patriots were 7th in the NFL with a 50% efficiency, while the Falcons defense was dead last at 72.1%.There is no way to know if these statistics will hold up through the weekend but if they do, you would have to believe that the Patriots have the slight edge here, especially if that Falcons defense is unable to slow down Brady and company in the red zone.