On Saturday, one of the most anticipated non-championship bouts of the year happens when Jose Zepeda throws down against Josue Vargas. Zepeda is the -170 favorite. Vargas has his supporters, though. Will the chalk get it done or will the slight underdog take home the win? Check out boxing odds, analysis, and a free pick for Josue Vargas versus Jose Zepeda and three other terrific Saturday bouts.
Boxing Events: Zepeda versus Vargas Highlights Saturday Action
Saturday, Oct. 30
Alberta Palmetta -1200 / Yeis Gabriel Solano +600
Yeis Gabriel Solano, a 29-year-old from Columbia, has build a decent 15-1 record with 10 knockout victories. Solano lost his last fight, his first in the U.S., to Mykquan Williams.
Williams is a well-respected boxer. So losing to Williams doesn’t mean Solano has no shot in this.
Alberta Palmetta is 16-1 with 12 knockout wins. He should take this, but Solano has a crazy good beard, meaning he can take a shot. Solano will eat a few to get close. Then, he’ll try to unleash some power against Palmetta.
It most likely won’t work. But the odds difference makes the underdog the play.
Boxing Pick: Bet Yeis Now!
Michel Rivera -1200 / Jose Matias Romero +600
Jose Matias Romero has built a 24-1 record. Because of the record, Matias can’t be discounted in this bout versus undefeated Michel Rivera.
But there are a couple of things about Romero’s record that leads us to believe he’s in deep. First, only 8 of his 24 victories have come via TKO or KO. Second, in his first fight in the states, the Argentinian fell to Isaac Cruz via unanimous decision.
Cruz landed a bunch of overhand punches in the fight. Michel Rivera is young, only 24-years-old, but he fights like a veteran. He’s never in a hurry, takes his time, and cuts down his opponent. From 21 victories, the undefeated boxer has 14 knockouts.
We hate backing chalk. In this case, we can’t go against the budding superstar.
Boxing Pick: Bet Michel Rivera Now!
Carlos Caraballo -600 / Jonas Sultan +350
14-0 with 14 knockouts, Carlos Caraballo is one of those guys that fight fans believe can win a title. Caraballo has a ton of power for a person in a 5’ 5” frame.
Jonas Sultan has a 17-5 record with 11 knockout victories. Sultan has won 2 straight. So the losses don’t mean much.
Not only that, but Sultan has fought some heavy hitters like Jerwin Ancajas. Sultan could get lucky and land a couple of punches that puts Caraballo on the canvas.
On film, though, Caraballo is the more disciplined fighter. Although Sultan has a chance, the chalk should take this.
Boxing Pick: Bet Carlos Caraballo Now!
Junior Lightweights – 10 Rounds
Jose Zepeda 34-2 vs. Josue Vargas 19-1
- When: Saturday, Oct. 30
- TV/Streaming: ESPN+
- Boxing Odds: Jose Zepeda -170 / Josue Vargas +140
Why bet on Jose Zepeda to beat Josue Vargas?
Zepeda is on the cusp of another title fight. Since losing to Jose Carlos Ramirez back in 2019, he’s fought a no contest and has won four straight.
The wins were agianst top competition. Jose Pedraza was 26-2 when Zepeda beat him. Zepeda won a unanimous decision over Kendo Castaneda when Castaneda was 17-1, and Jose dominated the experienced Henry Lundy last May.
Zepeda knows how important this fight is. We shouldn’t expect him to blow it.
Why bet on Josue Vargas to beat Jose Zepeda?
Josue Vargas’ last loss was in 2016. The 23-year-old has run off 13 straight victories.
Like Zepeda, Vargas understands that if he wins this fight, he’ll be in line for a title bout. For such a young fighter, Vargas has tremendous experience.
Josue’s 19-1 record pales in comparison to Zepeda’s, but we must remember Vargas has fought and beaten some tough guys, including Kendo Castaneda, like Zepeda, and Willie Shaw.
Final Boxing Odds Analysis: Zepeda versus Vargas
For sure, Josue Vargas has a chance. But there’s a flaw on his record that we can’t ignore.
Vargas has quick hands, decent foot movement, and puts together his punches. But Josue has only won 9-of-19 via TKO or KO.
The lack of power will be an issue versus Jose Zepeda. The #3 ranked super lightweight has won 26 of his bouts via TKO or KO. Not only that, but on film, Zepeda is skilled as switching from southpaw to orthodox.
Vargas fights almost exclusively as a southpaw, which means Zepeda can do a switch after throwing a right jab and then throw a left hook while in an orthodox stance. Or Zepeda can stay in the southpaw stance and throw a right.
Either way, because he can easily switch stances, there are angles and positions Jose Zepeda can win in this bout than Josue Vargas.
This feels like a bad matchup for the dog. Zepeda wins via decision.
Boxing Pick: Bet Jose Zepeda Now!