No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State | NCAA Tournament Betting Expert Analysis

It’s not too often that a No. 13 seed beats a No. 4 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but South Dakota State of the Summit League is more than capable of knocking off No. 4 and Big East regular-season champion Providence on Thursday. The Friars are short favorites on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Providence vs. South Dakota State NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

• When: Thursday, 12:40 PM ET
• Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
• TV: truTV
• Radio: Tunein.com
• Opening NCAAB Lines:  Providence -2 (total 149.5)

Why Bet on South DOpening NCAAB Lines:akota State?

South Dakota State (30-4) was the regular season and tournament champion in the Summit League, not losing single game in conference. The Jackrabbits beat North Dakota State 75-69 in the title game. The victory gave SDSU the longest active win streak in the nation at 21 straight wins and solidifies the 2021-2022 Jackrabbits as the first team in Summit League history to reach 30 wins in a season.

Douglas Wilson, Summit League Tournament MVP, led SDSU in scoring with his double-double of 21 points and 11 rebounds. Charlie Easley finished with 15 points, including three key 3-pointers, as Zeke Mayo, who in part helped solidify the win with a pair of free throws, chipped in 12 points. Baylor Scheierman ended the night with 11 points and four assists and Alex Arians, who hit the 1,000 career point mark on the first bucket of the night, tossed in 10 points.

SDSU shot 44 percent from the floor, 40 percent from behind the arc and 81 percent from the free throw line. Neither team attempted a free throw in the first half, but SDSU was 13-of-16 in the second half.

This will be the Jacks’ sixth NCAA Tournament appearance and their first-ever game vs. Providence. The Jackrabbits have the profile of a team that can spoil dreams. They have averaged 86.7 PPG, second in the country to Gonzaga. During their unblemished run through the Summit League’s regular-season slate, they hit 90 points or more seven times.

Since the start of league play, South Dakota State has shot 59% from inside the arc (seventh in the nation in that stretch) and 45.3% from 3 (the top mark in America during that span). Douglas Wilson (16.5 PPG, 40% from 3) is one of three South Dakota State players who are averaging double figures and connecting on at least 40% of their 3-point attempts.

Many of the mock brackets released by various college basketball media outlets had the Jacks as a 12 seed and there was some hope that maybe even an 11 would be in play. That didn’t happen.

“I thought we were for sure going to be at least a 12,” admitted Summit League Player of the Year Scheierman. “Considering, you know, we’re 30-4 with a 21-game winning streak. But it is what it is. I wanted to go someplace warm, but I’m happy we’re in and excited to get to go compete.”

Why Bet on Providence?

Providence (25-5) won the Big Eat regular-season title but was shockingly routed 85-58 by Creighton in the Big East Tournament semifinals. It was the most lopsided defeat for a No. 1 seed in Big East Tournament history.

The Bluejays, who ranked first in the Big East in field goal percentage defense (40%) and second in scoring defense (67.5 ppg) during conference games, went into the break ahead 42-27 after holding Providence to 28% shooting and 2 for 12 from 3-point range. The veteran Friars finished at 31%, including 3 of 24 on 3s. Al Durham was the Friars’ main contributor on offense, finishing with a game-high 21 points. Durham was the only player to reach double figures in the scoring column for PC.

“We picked a bad time to play bad in a great arena,” Providence coach Ed Cooley said. “I just want them to understand that it is only one game.”

The Friars are making their 21st NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2018. They are 15-21 all time in the NCAA Tournament with two trips to the Final Four (1973 and 1987). Cooley has led the Friars to six NCAA Tourneys in 11 years, which is more than any other coach at PC. The Friars are making their first appearance as a No. 4 seed, which is the highest seed they have achieved. The Friars’ highest seed prior to this year’s tournament was a No. 5 seed in 2015. Nate Watson is the only Friar who has played in the NCAA Tournament (2018 vs. Texas A&M).

The Friars have faced nine teams in the NCAA Tournament field this season and have posted an 8-4 mark against those teams. The Friars faced Wisconsin (1-0), Saint Peter’s (1-0), Texas Tech (1-0), Vermont (1-0), Connecticut (1-0), Seton Hall (1-0), Marquette (1-1), Creighton (1-1) and Villanova (0-2). All time, the Friars have faced 50 of the 68 teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament Field. Providence has registered a 289-306 record all-time against those 50 teams, including a 5-9 mark in NCAA play.

The hope is that a sports hernia that’s been nagging Durham, the No. 2 scorer on the team, won’t linger into the tournament. Even at full strength, though, questions about Providence’s ability to compete against the top teams in the field — the Friars were swept by Villanova in the regular season — remain valid.

Game Trends

• Jackrabbits are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog.
• Jackrabbits are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
• Jackrabbits are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Friars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
• Friars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
• Friars are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 neutral site games as a favorite.
• Friars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games.

Expert Prediction

• Providence 77, South Dakota State 75

 

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