Louisville vs Kentucky Odds & Prediction, and Drake vs Missouri State Lines

Louisville vs Kentucky Odds & Prediction, and Drake vs Missouri State Lines

Written by on December 30, 2022

There is another college basketball weekend upon us, and league play is currently amping up. Here are some of the best bets and NCAA Football Odds for this weekend’s loaded slate!

Men’s NCAA Basketball Betting Picks & Options for Dec. 31st and Jan. 1st Games

Louisville at Kentucky (-23) | Saturday, December 31st

Normally in a rivalry game, you can throw the record right out the window. Given how things are currently going with the Bluegrass State’s most notable programs, you can ignore that here. 

The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in Division 1 against the number on the season this year and may be catching the Wildcats at the exact wrong times. Louisville is just 2-11 against the anticipated margin this season despite playing a 139th-ranked strength of schedule. Kenny Payne’s club is underperforming the number by -7.3 points per game which currently ranks sixth worst in the entire nation. 

The Wildcats however, represent one of the most talented rosters in the country but are not a whole lot better against the number. In what can only be described as shocking, Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC ATS at 4-8, underperforming the anticipated margin by -5.1 points per contest. John Calipari’s club has not covered a spread since November 23rd, a stretch that spans six games. 

This is the time of year when Coach Calipari typically gets his teams to come together and ascend the rankings. The Wildcats should get right at home in this matchup.

Drake Bulldogs vs Missouri State Bears O/U 133.5 | Sunday, January 1st

When you are talking about the Missouri Valley Conference one of the first things that should come to mind should be defense. While Northern Iowa is typically the standard in the conference, the entire league is known for deliberate play and limiting opponents possessions. 

In this particular matchup, the anticipated total feels about seven points higher than it should be. The Bulldogs are currently allowing just 65 points per game while the Missouri State Bears are surrendering just a shade over 61 per ballgame. 

Dana Ford’s team is also one of the slowest-tempo teams in the nation, ranking 340th according to the Pomeroy metric. A key peripheral to that is the fact that they don’t turn the ball over a ton lately. Their metric ranking of 127th in the nation in turnover percentage can be a bit deceiving as they have only exceeded 12 turnovers once in their last four games. 

Drake is not as slow as their upcoming opponent but still ranks 146th in the nation in tempo. The Bulldogs rank 44th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage with an average offensive possession time of 16.5 seconds. 

Also of note, Tucker DeVries, Drake’s leading scorer, struggled in two of the three meetings between the two teams just a season ago. In two regular season matchups, DeVries averaged just six points per game and shot 4-15 from the floor, and went to the free throw line just three total times. 

Expect this game to be slow and methodically with the potential to end with both teams in the 50’s.


 

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