Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State in March Madness: Odds, Analysis and Trends for Elite Eight

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It’s very unlikely East Region final in the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Saturday evening when No. 9 Florida Atlantic of Conference USA faces No. 3 Kansas State of the Big 12, with the Wildcats short favorites on the NCAAB odds to reach the Final Four.

Elite Eight: No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 3 Kansas State | 2023 NCAA Tournament Expert Analysis

How to Bet FAU vs. Kansas State NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 6:10 PM ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
TV: TBS
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAB Lines: K-State -2 (144.5)

Why Bet on Florida Atlantic?

Conference USA champion Florida Atlantic upset No. 4 Tennessee on Thursday, 62-55, to advance to the Elite Eight. UT controlled the first half and the opening eight minutes of the second half, but with the Vols leading 39-33 with just over 12 minutes to play, Florida Atlantic exploded for an 18-2 run to pull in front 51-41 by the 6:47 mark.

The Vols were able to cut the Owls’ lead back down to five points after a quick 7-2 spurt capped off by a three from James that made it 55-50 with 3:37 to go, but Florida Atlantic then outscored Tennessee 4-0 over the next two minutes of game time to regain control.

“They wanted it more,” UT’s Josiah-Jordan James said. “That’s tough to say.”

The Owls dominated in the board battle, outrebounding Tennessee 40-36 despite being undersized at almost every position. UT has been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation this season. FAU took advantage of long rebounds on 3-point attempts repeatedly. Four players snagged at least six rebounds: Nick Boyd (8), Brandon Weatherspoon (7), Vladislav Goldin (7), and Johnell Davis (6).

Boyd was all over the court, finishing the night with 12 points and seven rebounds. Davis had a team-high 15 points. A driving layup 14 seconds into the second frame helped set the tone in a half that was all Owls. They are 10-0 this season when Davis leads the team in scoring. He’s been the team’s leading scorer in each of the past two games and four of the past six.

FAU is a team where any player can step up on any given night, as evidenced by the eight different Owls who have led the team in scoring in a game this season. Eight of nine players who took the court Thursday scored. The Owls had 40 points after halftime, just the ninth time this season a team scored 40 or more points in a half against the Volunteers. The Owls picked up the pace, shots started falling and driving lanes consistently opened up.

“We’re where we’re supposed to be,” Boyd said. “We’re going to keep moving, keep working. Can’t count us out no more. We’re here to stay and we’re going to keep fighting no matter who we line up against, who we play. We’re going to keep making statements.”

The victory was the 100th career for Coach Dusty May. Entering the NCAA Tournament, only 2.2% of anyone filling out a bracket picked Florida Atlantic to make it this far. The Owls had never won an NCAA Tournament game previously.

Why Bet on Kansas State?

Kansas State (26-9) was picked to finish last in the Big 12 this season but first-year coach Jerome Tang has worked wonders through the transfer portal and the Cats beat No. 7 Michigan State 98-93 in overtime on Thursday in an instant classic. With MSU trailing 82-80 in regulation, Tyson Walker drove to the lane in the closing seconds and banked in a layup with five seconds remaining to send the game into overtime.

MSU had the lead on three separate occasions in the extra session, but after the score was tied at 92, the Wildcats went on a 6-1 run to close out the game. The back-and-forth game featured 14 ties and 16 lead changes.

Wildcats senior Markquis Nowell sealed one of the greatest NCAA Tournament performances in school history with a steal of fellow Yorker Tyson Walker with 3 seconds left in overtime. Nowell’s layup at the buzzer gave him 20 points for the night to go with an NCAA Tournament-record 19 assists and 5 steals.

His 19 assists eclipsed the previous record of 18 set by UNLV’s Mark Wade in the 1987 Final Four. The assist total also broke the school single season record of 16 set by Keith Frazier against Central Missouri on Dec. 18, 1976, while also surpassing his own NCAA Tournament mark of 14 vs. Montana State. It was Nowell’s 17th career points/assists double-double, including his 12th at K-State and his ninth this season.

Fellow senior Keyontae Johnson led the team with 22 points on 10-of-18 shooting in playing nearly 45 minutes. He now has 10 games of 20 or more points this season with double figures now in 34 of 35 games.

K-State broke school records for most assists (26) and fewest turnovers (5) in an NCAA Tournament game while tying the mark for made 3-point field goals (11). The 98 points were the fourth-most (98) in an NCAA Tournament game in school history and the most since scoring 101 vs. Xavier in 2010 NCAA West Regional Semifinals on March 25, 2010.

It will be the 13th trip to the Elite Eight for the Wildcats, including the first since 2018. The win was the 26th of the season, which is the third-most in school history behind the 29 in 2009-10 and the 27 in 2012-13. Tang is looking to become the ninth first-year coach to lead a team to the Final Four.

FAU and Kansas State have never played.

Game Trends

Owls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Owls are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Owls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.
Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Wildcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Wildcats are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up win.