NCAA Tournament Betting Analysis: Wolfpack vs Creighton Odds and Trends

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It’s the ACC against the Big East in first-round NCAA Tournament action from the South Region on Friday as No. 11 seed NC State takes on No. 6 Creighton. The Bluejays are favored on the NCAAB odds to reach the Round of 32 most likely to face No. 3 Baylor.

No. 11 N.C. State vs. No. 6 Creighton | 2023 NCAA Tournament Expert Analysis

How to Bet NC State vs. Creighton NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 4 PM ET
Where: Ball Arena, Denver
TV: TNT
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening NCAAB Lines: Creighton -5.5 (total 144.5)

Why Bet on NC State?

The Wolfpack (23-10) have lost three of four and looked terrible last time out, an 80-54 rout at the hands of Clemson on March 9 in the ACC Tournament. NC State had the ball trailing 45-42 with a little over 16 minutes to play, but turned it over and Clemson went down the other way and buried a three-pointer to double its lead. The three-pointer was the start of a 10-0 run for the Tigers to extend its lead to 55-42 with 12:43 to go. That was that. DJ Burns led the Pack with 12 points while Terquavion Smith added 11. Jarkel Joiner and Jack Clark each added 10 points.

Joiner and Smith were named to the All-ACC Second Team following the regular season, while Burns, Jr., was an Honorable Mention All-ACC selection. This marks the first time since the 2012-13 season that NC State has had multiple players earn All-ACC recognition.

Joiner, in is one and only season with the Pack, finished the regular season fourth in the ACC in scoring with an average of 17.3 points per game and was also fourth in the conference in free throw percentage at 82.5 percent and finished fifth in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.25. Joiner led NC State in scoring 11 times, assists nine times and steals nine times.

Smith led NC State in scoring (outscoring Joiner by two points in the regular season) with a 17.3 points per game average. Smith finished the regular season ranked in the top-10 in five different categories in the ACC. He finished third in scoring, fifth in three-pointers made per game (2.74), seventh in steals (1.5), eighth in assists (4.4) and ninth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.99).

Burns averaged 13.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game while shooting 56.8 percent from the field this season. He increased those averages to 16.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in the Pack’s 20 ACC games. He finished the regular season third in the ACC in field goal percentage.

The Wolfpack want to rev up the tempo and will press from the get-go, hoping to get the high-octane guard combo of Smith and Joiner as many shots as possible. This is the Pack’s 28th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since the 2018 season. NC State has an all-time record of 37-25 in the NCAA Tournament.

This will be the third meeting all-time between the two programs. NC State won the first ever meeting between the teams, defeating the Bluejays, 86-55, on Dec. 28, 1987 in the first round of the Rainbow Classic in Honolulu, Hawaii. Creighton won the most recent meeting on Nov. 20, 2017 in the second round of the Paradise Jam played in St. Thomas, Virgin Islands.

Why Bet on Creighton?

Creighton (21-12) also didn’t look great in its last game, an 82-60 loss to Xavier in the Big East Tournament but the Bluejays are talented enough to reach the Final Four.

This year’s club features First Team All-Big East center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.4 ppg), a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year and the national leader in field goal percentage (.714). Kalkbrenner is one of four finalists for this year’s Naismith Trophy Men’s Defensive Player of the Year award. He leads the Big East with 2.2 blocked shots per game, which ranks 18th nationally.

Kalkbrenner ranks second in CU history with 192 career blocked shots and anchors a Bluejay defense that led the league during conference play in scoring defense, scoring margin and field goal percentage defense. Kalkbrenner is also second on the team with 6.2 rebounds per game. He’s also one of five players up for the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar award given to the nation’s best center and one of 25 men in the running for the Lefty Driesell Award given to the nation’s best defensive player.

South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman (12.8 ppg., 8.4 rpg.), owns the team lead with 13 double-doubles and 77 three-pointers made and enters the postseason having tied the Creighton record with a three-pointer in 33 straight games.

CU averages 76.6 points while allowing just 68.5 points per contest. CU shoots 46.7 percent from the floor, 36.0 percent from deep and 76.7 percent at the line.

This year marks Creighton’s 24th postseason bid in the last 26 seasons, which includes 15 NCAA Tournament bids in that span. The Bluejays have won at least one game in 11 of its last 13 postseason appearances. This will be Creighton’s fifth straight trip to the NCAA’s via an at-large bid. CU is 15-24 all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

Creighton owns a 1-3 record all-time in the South Region. The Jays defeated seventh-seeded Louisville in Orlando in 1999, only to lose two days later to second-seeded Maryland. Since then CU has lost to seventh-seeded Nevada in New Orleans in 2007 and to ninth-seeded Kansas State in Charlotte in 2018. The Bluejays have never previously played a Big Dance game in Colorado.

In 35 previous NCAA or NIT appearances, Creighton has won consecutive games in the same event just three times, with that happening in the 2016 and 2019 NIT’s, as well as the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Game Trends

Wolfpack are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Bluejays are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Bluejays are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
Bluejays are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games.