Betting Analysis on 49ers vs. Redskins NFL Week 6 Spread

2016 Washington Redskins Season Win Total Prediction

Written by on July 22, 2016

I don’t think there’s any question that the most surprising division winner in football last year was the Washington Redskins in the NFC East a year after finishing last. Can the Redskins repeat in 2016? Oddsmakers don’t think so as they are given a wins total of 7.5 in NFL betting.

Let’s Take a Closer Look at the 2016 Washington Redskins Season Win Total Prediction

Total Win/Loss Odds Overview

With a regular season record of 9-7 last year, the Redskins posted their 39th winning season in team history. It was their 24th nine-win season in team history and the franchise’s first since 2012. The Redskins finished their regular season home slate with a 6-2 home record, the team’s best home record since 2005 (6-2). The Redskins clinched their 15th division title and 24th overall playoff berth in team history. The Redskins completed their second “worst-to- first” one-season turnaround in team history (2012) after the Redskins finished last in the NFC East in 2014 with a 4-12 record.But the year ended on a down note in a 35-18 home loss to Green Bay in the wild-card round, blowing an early 11-0 lead. Kirk Cousins, making his first playoff start after a breakthrough season, was 29 for 46 for 329 yards. He threw for one touchdown, ran for another, lost one fumble and was sacked six times. Thus the Redskins didn’t beat a single team last year that finished with a winning record.

Why Betting On The Over?

Is Cousins for real? The Redskins are waiting to see if his huge 2015 season was a mirage as they declined to agree on a long-term contract with him. In his first full season as the starter, Cousins set several single-season franchise records, completing 379-of- 543 passing attempts for 4,166 yards, along with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. During the team’s final stretch, he was selected as NFC Offensive Player of the Month, which also included Week 17 action in early January, accumulating 13 touchdowns and just one interception.He was one of just four quarterbacks with 4,100 yards, at least 29 touchdowns, fewer than 12 picks and a passer rating over 100. Those are great numbers. Cousins will now be forced to play under the franchise tag for the entire 2016 season, becoming the first quarterback since Drew Brees in 2012 to play with the tag for a full year. There’s a lot of talent around Kirk Cousins, starting with tight end Jordan Reed, and receivers DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson. Jackson missed six games last year with a hamstring injury. He did have a 153-yard game after his return, leading to hopes that he can match his 2014 form, when he averaged more than 20 yards per catch.The defense should be better simply with the addition of Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman. Just two days after the Carolina Panthers rescinded their non-exclusive franchise tag on the All-Pro cornerback, Norman signed a five-year, $75 million deal with the Redskins. Norman exploded onto the scene last autumn, compiling four interceptions and 19 passes defensed. He also allowed a 60.9 passer rating in coverage, the 15th-lowest among qualifying cornerbacks in 2015. Norman turns the cornerback position into a strength for last year’s NFC East champions. Bashaud Breeland was highly productive in 2015 and will make for a great starting duo with Norman. Will Blackmon, Quinton Dunbar and Greg Toler all add depth.

Why Betting On The Under?

The rushing attack is still very questionable. Washington finished last in the league in rushing DVOA last season, and it’s hard to figure how it’ll be significantly better in 2016. Its most notable move was to cut Alfred Morris. The team is turning the role over to Matt Jones. In addition to fumbling five times on 169 touches during his rookie season, Jones was horribly inefficient as a runner. He finished last in Football Outsiders’ individual rushing DVOA statistic. Even more distressingly, he averaged 3.4 yards per carry on his 144 rushing attempts.The D-Line also is a question. Chris Baker was the only defensive lineman who could provide any sort of pressure (six sacks) last year. The Redskins also struggled against the run, allowing the seventh-most yards on the ground. The Redskins picked just one defensive lineman in the entire draft, and that came in the fifth round when Washington selected Temple nose tackle Matt Ioannidis. They also signed Kendall Reyes and Ziggy Hood, both of whom have struggled in recent years (Hood was hurt last season, but was released by Jacksonville one year into a four-year deal).The Redskins’ big moves along the line were more about who they parted ways with – Terrance Knighton (free agency) and Jason Hatcher (released, then retired) – than who they signed. The Redskins haven’t posted consecutive winning seasons since 1996-97 and haven’t made the playoffs in back-to- back years since 1991-92.

My Betting Prediction

Last year was clearly a fluke. The schedule will be much tougher this year. Go under the total in online NFL odds.