Detroit at Cincinnati NFL Spread & Betting Analysis for Week 16

Detroit at Cincinnati NFL Spread & Betting Analysis for Week 16

Written by on December 21, 2017

There are basically two ways to look at NFL games in Week 16: Which teams care regarding the playoffs and which could give a crap and have players already thinking about tee times? The Lions still have plenty to play for as they visit Cincinnati, which is playing out the string and thus an NFL spread underdog. Let’s take a closer look at the NFL Week 16 odds for this matchup.

Detroit at Cincinnati NFL Spread & Betting Analysis for Week 16

When: Sunday, 1 PM ETWhere: Paul Brown Stadium, CincinnatiTV: FoxRadio: 760 AM WJR (Detroit) / 1530 AM (Cincinnati)Stream Option: NFL LiveOpening NFL Spread: Lions -4.5 (43.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Overcast: 1°C/34°F
  • Humidity: 61%
  • Precipitation: 5%
  • Wind: 8 mph NE
  • Cloud Cover: 96%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Last Meeting

In 2014, the Lions lost at home to the Bengals, 27-24. Mike Nugent’s 54-yard field goal as time expired won it, but two punts and a blocked field goal also were crucial. The Lions rallied from an 11-point, third-quarter deficit and looked as if they did enough to send the game to OT, but Sam Martin shanked a punt just 28 yards to midfield in the final minute. Andy Dalton threw for 372 yards and three scores. Matthew Stafford threw for 357 yards and three scores.

Why Bet on Detroit?

Because they have to win. The Lions must win out and have the Falcons lose out to get a wild-card spot.  If the Lions just win one game in their final two, neither of the Cowboys or Seahawks can get in. Because of a last-minute home loss to the Falcons in Week 3, the Lions need to be 10-6 to the Falcons’ 9-7 in order to move up for the second wild card. There are other scenarios where if the Lions win out and the Saints or Panthers lose out (or both do) that Detroit would get in, but it’s complicated. The Lions’ playoff odds currently stand at 14%, according to Lions will finish the season without receiver TJ Jones (shoulder) as he was placed on injured reserve. He was having a good year as the team’s No. 3/4 receiver — including a touchdown last Saturday in a 20-10 win over the Bears before he got hurt. Jones began the year as the No. 4 receiver but picked up more work after Kenny Golladay injured his hamstring against Atlanta in Week 3. He finished the season with 30 catches for 399 yards and one touchdown, with 22 of his receptions going for first downs.Cornerback Darius Slay was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week for Week 15. Against the Bears last Saturday, Slay was targeted four times and allowed three catches for just 41 yards, while picking off two passes and batting away one. He was named to his first Pro Bowl on Tuesday. He’s the only Lions player to be selected to the game on the original ballot. He also picks up a $550,000 bump in his base salary for 2018 because of the selection. Slay leads the NFL with seven interceptions.Look for a big game Sunday from Stafford as passing yards have accounted for just over 80 percent of the Lions offense over the past four weeks, a pace that leads the league in that span. The Bengals have been torched of late through the air.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 25.57
  • Total Yards: 340.86
  • Pass Yards: 263.50
  • Rush Yards: 77.36
  • Average Score Against: 24.21
  • Total Yards: 362.36
  • Pass Yards: 251.29
  • Rush Yards: 111.07

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Bengals have won five straight in this series and haven’t lost a game to the Lions since 1992. Many NFC teams seem to have trouble beating the Bengals in Cincinnati. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Bengals have only lost one game at home to an NFC team (6-1-2). But the 2017 Bengals have played two straight games against the NFC North and have been outscored 67-14.Are the Bengals a safe bet in Week 16?Honestly, I can’t think of many reasons to pick Cincinnati other than it’s at home. Maybe the team plays hard for the first time in a few weeks for Coach Marvin Lewis, who reportedly is on his way out. Star WR AJ Green has heard the news that Lewis will leave at the end of the season, which was only briefly addressed with the players following a loss to the Vikings last Sunday. Green admitted that it has affected some of the members of the team, but he hasn’t let it change anything he does. Green is on his way to another 1,000-yard season, earning him a trip to the Pro Bowl.The Cincinnati offense is now ranked last in the NFL. Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor said he thought the offense was going through some of the same confidence issues they had during the first two games of the season, which resulted in then-offensive coordinator Ken Zampese getting fired after two weeks.Rookie running back Joe Mixon, a rare bright spot this year, has been a full participant in practice after missing two games with a concussion. But the Bengals have placed starting OT Andre Smith on injured reserve and signed OT Justin Murray off the Saints practice squad.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 16.64
  • Total Yards: 303
  • Pass Yards: 191.93
  • Rush Yards: 111.07
  • Average Score Against: 21.79
  • Total Yards: 345.43
  • Pass Yards: 214
  • Rush Yards: 131.43

Lates NFL Spread Trends

  • Detroit is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
  • Detroit is 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games
  • Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
  • Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing Detroit

Expert Prediction & NFL Week 16 Pick

I don’t trust the Lions away from home much but trust the Bengals even less right now. Give the points in the NFL spread.