2022 PFL Regular Season: Lightweights & Light Heavyweights MMA Betting Analysis and Picks

2022 PFL Regular Season: Lightweights & Light Heavyweights MMA Betting Analysis and Picks

Week 4 of the PFL regular season is here, and that means another round of Light Heavyweight and Lightweight action. Each of the fighters in these divisions already have one fight under their belts, so this round of action is crucial for those who took a loss in their opening bout. For the guys who have already picked up a win, another victory will mean passage into the playoffs, which will take them one step closer to the prize pot. It’s also worth noting that besides the money, these guys are putting on a show in hopes of getting noticed by the UFC, as some of the big winners will get the opportunity to take that step up in class. This event begins at 7 PM EST on Friday night and can be seen on ESPN and ESPN+.

There are just 4 fights on the main car, but they all mean something, so let’s take a closer look at the PFL betting lines.

2022 PFL Regular Season: Lightweights & Light Heavyweights

Jeremy Stephens (-660) Vs Myles Price (+480)

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We get the main card rolling with a Lightweight bout that is critical for both fighters, as they are both coming off a loss in the first PFL fight. Stephens is sinking like a stone at the moment and is on a run of 7 straight fights without a win (6L 1 NC). Price has been rather up and down in his pro career, going 11-8. He is coming off an opening round loss to Anthony Pettis in PFL action. Neither fighter is doing great right now, but I like Stephens to snap out of his funk with the KO win.

Raush Manfio (+155) Vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-185)

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This Lightweight bout looks to be a little more evenly matched than the previous bout, with both fighters looking to go 2-0 in the regular season. Manfio is 16-3 overall and is on a 5-fight win streak, which includes a KO win in his last outing. Aubin-Mercier win his first PFL fight of the season, but the win was a split decision, which means just 3 points, leaving him below the playoff line. I am actually going with the underdog here and taking Manfio for the decision win.

Antonio Carlos Junior (-910) Vs Bruce Souto (+655)

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This Light Heavyweight bout serves as the co-main event of the night, but it could be one of those where you might blink and miss it. Junior comes in as a huge favorite after going unbeaten in his last 5 fights, which includes a win in his first PFL bout this season in just 29 seconds. Souto is an impressive 15-4 in his pro career, but he was soundly beaten is his first fight of the season. I think he is looking at a similar fate in this one.

Clay Collard (-190) Vs Alex Martinez (+160)

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The main event of the night is a Lightweight bout, with both fighters coming off wins in their opening bouts of the regular season. Collard is 21-9 and winner of 4 of his last 5 fights, including a decision win in his 2022 PFL opener. Martinez is also coming off a decision win in his opening bout, moving to 9-2 in the process. That win snapped a 2-fight losing streak. This is a very good matchup, but it’s one that I like Collard to take by decision.


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