Alabama at Ole Miss Expert Pick & Betting Odds

Alabama at Ole Miss Expert Pick & Betting Odds

Written by on September 15, 2016

Only two coaches have beaten Nick Saban in back-to- back seasons since Saban arrived at Alabama and created one of the great dynasties in college football history. One of those guys is Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze and he looks for an unprecedented third straight win in the series on Saturday as the No. 19 Rebels host the No. 1 Tide. But Alabama is a solid favorite on college football odds.

How To Bet on the Alabama at Ole Miss Expert Pick, Betting Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
Opening NCAA Football Lines: Alabama -11 (54.5)

Why Bet on Alabama?

Because Saban might murder his entire coaching staff if the Tide lose to Ole Miss again! I’m kidding — I think. Bama clearly is better at just about every position except quarterback. The Crimson Tide are 14–0 straight up and 9–5 against the spread in their 14 games since losing to Ole Miss in Week 3 last season.

Ole Miss was ranked No. 15 and Bama No. 2 when the Rebels won 43-37 in Tuscaloosa last year. Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly completed a deflected 66-yard touchdown pass and added two more long ones in the fourth quarter. The Crimson Tide had been 25-1 in Tuscaloosa against Ole Miss and had never lost two straight in the series.

The loss was an uncharacteristic one for a Saban-coached team. Alabama lost the turnover battle five to zero (tied for the most turnovers allowed in Saban’s 125 games as head coach of the Tide) and gave up 24 points on those turnovers, the second most one of his Alabama teams has ever allowed.

The Tide (2-0) come off a 38-10 win over Western Kentucky. Freshman Jalen Hurts passed for 287 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start. Hurts likely nailed down the quarterback job with a 23-of- 36 passing performance. He was the first true freshman quarterback to start at Alabama since Vince Sutton started four games in 1984. He also had two likely touchdowns dropped. Blake Barnett got the nod in the opener against Southern California and completed 2 of 6 passes for 64 yards in this one. Barnett returned late in the game only to lose a fumble on the quarterback-center exchange, giving the Hilltoppers a short field they cashed in for their only touchdown.

Alabama and Ole Miss will meet for the 64th time in a series that dates back to 1894. The Crimson Tide own the all-time advantage, 47-11- 2 (51-10- 2 actual). Alabama is 7-4 all-time in Oxford and has won four of its last five games at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, falling 23-17 in their last trip in 2014.

Saban is 8-1 in road conference openers during his time with the Crimson Tide and has outscored his opponents, 332-163 (36.8-18.1 ppg) in his first nine seasons at Alabama. Since Alabama's road loss to Ole Miss in 2014, the Tide have faced four ranked teams on the road. Not only are they 4-0, but they've won those games by an average of 32.5 to 10.5.

Why Bet on Ole Miss?

The Rebels enter Saturday’s game with a 1-1 overall record after opening the season with a 45-34 loss to Florida State on Sept. 5 at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Ole Miss rebounded to defeat Wofford, 38-13, in its home opener last week. Kelly threw for 219 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Rebels over the FCS school. Kelly completed short touchdown throws in the first half to Markell Pack, D.K. Metcalf and Quincy Adeboyejo, and Gary Wunderlich made a 40-yard field goal as the Rebels methodically moved the ball against the overmatched Terriers.

Kelly leads the SEC with seven passing touchdowns and 42 points responsible for. Ole Miss is a perfect 10 of 10 in the red zone (all TDs) and leads the SEC with a 62.5 3rd-down conversion rate. Ole Miss is looking to become the first school to defeat a Saban-coached Alabama team three straight times. The last time the Rebels faced the nation’s No. 1 team was a 2014 win over Alabama. Ole Miss is 1-10 all-time versus the top-ranked team in the land. Ole Miss is 10-13 against ranked teams, 4-9 against top-10 foes and 3-4 against top-five foes under Freeze.

My Expert Pick

Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings
Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings
Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Mississippi
Crimson Tide are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings

Give the points on NCAA football lines, go over the total.