Can Iowa Pull Off Another Upset in the NCAAF Week 11 Odds Against Wisconsin?

Iowa State vs Iowa Week 2 Expert Pick & Odds

Written by on September 8, 2016

There are 29 new coaches in the Football Bowl Subdivision this year and perhaps none of the new guys had a worse first game with his new school than Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. His Cyclones look to get back on track Saturday in the annual battle for Iowa against the Big Ten’s No. 16th ranked Hawkeyes. As usual in this series, Iowa is a solid favorite on NCAA Football lines.

How to Bet on the Iowa State vs Iowa Week 2 Expert Pick, Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, Sept. 10, 7:30 PM ET Where: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City TV: Big Ten Network Opening NCAAF Lines: Iowa -15 (51)

Why Bet on Iowa State?

Campbell was a very successful coach at Toledo and his new team can’t play any worse than its Week 1 25-20 loss to FCS school Northern Iowa. So if Iowa State loses this game, it won’t even be the second-best team in the state. UNI’s J’Veyon Browning scored from 1 yard out with 2:49 left after a Joel Lanning interception, putting the Panthers ahead by five. Cyclones running back Mike Warren fumbled it right back to Northern Iowa, and Lanning’s final pick with 1:10 left sealed the upset loss. Lanning finished with 256 yards passing, three touchdowns and those two costly interceptions. ISU head coaches are now 21-9-2 in their Cyclone debuts. To be fair, ISU is a young team as 13 freshmen made their debuts, including six true freshman. In the previous three seasons (2013-15), a combined six true freshmen saw action on the field. Iowa State already equaled that total in game one with David Montgomery (RB), Kene Nwangwu (RB), JaQuan Bailey (DE), Steve Wirte (LS) Jamahl Johnson (DT) and Deshaunte Jones (WR). “Make me play you,” Campbell said of using so many kids. “The best guy will play. Because of the changes going on throughout this year, you have to have in retrospect of this is everybody’s first time going through a lot of this. I thought, for the most part, those [freshman] kids really did a great job.” The road team has won the last four meetings in the series with Iowa. ISU’s last two trips to Kinnick Stadium resulted in victories. Jake Knott saved the game in 2012 with an interception in the closing moments to preserve a 9-6 win. In 2014, ISU rallied from a 14-3 halftime deficit to win 20-17. Senior PK Cole Netten drilled a 42-yard game-winning FG in the closing seconds to secure the victory.

Why Bet on Iowa?

The Hawkeyes rolled to a 45-21 win over Miami of Ohio in Week 1. Akrum Wadley ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns, LeShun Daniels added 83 yards rushing and two scores. Senior C.J. Beathard was 13 of 20 passing for 192 yards and a touchdown for the Hawkeyes. Iowa played much of the game without star linebacker Josey Jewell, who was ejected early in the first quarter for targeting. Jewell nailed Matt Merimee with a viscous helmet to helmet hit. in a surprise, Iowa extended the contract of coach Kirk Ferentz this week. Ferentz appeared to be on the hot seat at Iowa entering the 2015 season. Then the Hawkeyes went 12-0 in the regular season, won the Big Ten West and made the Rose Bowl. On Tuesday, Iowa extended his contract to 2026 and gave him a raise, to $4.5 million annually. If Ferentz fulfills the deal, he will have coached the Hawkeyes for 28 years. Under the new deal, if Iowa were to fire Ferentz for reasons other than a scandal or physical incapacity, he would be owed 100 percent of his guaranteed money in 2016 and 2017 and 75 percent of it between 2018 and 2020. Ferentz is already tied for the current longest tenure at a school in the FBS, as he and Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops were both hired in 1999. Ferentz was already signed through the 2019 season. The Hawkeyes have won eight straight home games, the fifth-longest active streak in the country (FSU, 21; Clemson, 16; TCU, 14; Michigan State, 9; Iowa, 8). Iowa has also won 13 straight regular season games. Beathard is 14-2 as Iowa’s starting quarterback, 14-0 in the regular season, and 8-0 at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa holds a 41-22 advantage in the series with ISU that began with a 16-8 ISU win in 1894. The Hawkeyes have won five of the last eight meetings, including a 31-17 win last season in Ames.

My Expert Pick

Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Under is 8-2- 1 in the last 11 meetings. Give the points, go under the total on NCAAF lines.