Are the Mountaineers a Safe NCAAF Betting Pick vs. Iowa State in Week 10?

Written by on November 2, 2017

College Football has 5 power conferences and only 4 playoff spots, which means that at least one of the big conferences is not going to be sending a team into the postseason. Looking at the standings right now, the smart money for any NCAAF betting enthusiast would be on the Big 12 being the conferences that miss out, but with a lot of football still to play, there is time for a few teams in the Big 12 to change that. As good as the Iowa State Cyclones have been this season, their two losses make it hard to believe that they will be one of those teams, although they are still very much in the running for the Big 12 Championship game, which features the top two teams in the conference. The Cyclones have made a habit of taking down the bigger teams this season, and they are going to need to do that again this weekend against a West Virginia Mountaineers team that may be feeling bad about their season, but who are still incredibly dangerous. The Mountaineers are a 2 ½ point home favorite, with the point total for this one set at 60. Let’s find out which team offers the best value for you to cash in.

Iowa State (6-2) vs. West Virginia (5-3) NCAAF Betting Analysis

  • When: Saturday, November 4 at 3:30 PM EST
  • Where: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Radio: 107.3 FM (Iowa State) / 100.7 FM (West Virginia)
  • Live Stream: Big 12 Sports
  • NCAAF Odds: West Virginia Mountaineers -2.5 (Over/Under at 60)

Weather Forecast

  • Chance of Rain: 16°C/61°F
  • Humidity: 66%
  • Precipitation: 54%
  • Cloud Cover: 77%
  • Wind: 6 mph SE
  • Stadium Type: Open

Alabama Host LSU as Huge Favorite in NCAAF Week 10 Betting Odds

Recent Head to Head (Last 5 Games)

  • Record: West Virginia leads 4-1
  • Score: Iowa State 25.00 / West Virginia 38.20
  • Rush Yards: Iowa State 179.20 / West Virginia 244.20
  • Pass Attempts: Iowa State 40.60 / West Virginia 31.80
  • Completion Percentage: Iowa State 52.22 / West Virginia 55.97
  • Passing Yards: Iowa State 266.00 / West Virginia 284.00
  • Total Yards: Iowa State 445.2 / West Virginia 528.2
  • Turnovers: Iowa State 2.40 / West Virginia 1.40

Why should the Cyclones be your NCAAF Betting Pick?

Iowa State has been the giant killers this season, with their latest headhunting mission ending in a 14-7 win over TCU last weekend, a win that essentially killed any chance of the Horned Frogs being in the top 4 in the first rankings from the playoff committee. While that win was huge, it was certainly not the first time that the Cyclones have played the underdog role to perfection, as they also took out the Oklahoma Sooners earlier this season at a time when Oklahoma was ranked #3. The Cyclones have done a masterful job of shutting down potent offenses, especially last week. Who can remember the last time that TCU was held to 7 points by anyone? Another win by the Cyclones this weekend will very much keep their Big 12 Championship hopes alive, and essentially kill off the Mountaineers in the process. The bad news here is that the Cyclones are just 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 visits to West Virginia.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 32.38
  • Total Yards: 382.26
  • Rush Yards: 112.88
  • Passing Yards: 269.38
  • Average Score Against: 18.75
  • Total Yards: 347.5
  • Rush Yards: 126.88
  • Passing Yards: 220.62

Why should the Mountaineers be your NCAAF Betting Pick?

The West Virginia Mountaineers saw their chances of a Big 12 Championship appearance basically go up in smoke last weekend in a 50-39 loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This was a game that they always seemed to be chasing, which may explain why QB Will Grier had such an off day, throwing 4 picks. It has been that kind of year for a Mountaineers team that many, myself included, saw as a potential playoff dark horse. According to the NCAAF Betting Odds for Week 10, the Mountaineers are favorites to beat Iowa State. They are now 6-3 on the season, and really need a win over Iowa State if they are to have any shot at a Big 12 title. The good news for the Mountaineers is that this is a match-up that they have routinely dominated, going 4-1 SU and ATS versus the Cyclones. They are also 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home, although just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in Morgantown.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 42.75
  • Total Yards: 516
  • Rush Yards: 161.88
  • Passing Yards: 354.12
  • Average Score Against: 31.62
  • Total Yards: 460.24
  • Rush Yards: 204.62
  • Passing Yards: 255.62

Latest NCAAF Betting Trends for Week 10

  • Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Cyclones are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iowa State’s last 6 games
  • Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
  • Mountaineers are 16-6 SU in their last 22 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia’s last 5 games

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

This is a game that I believe will go right down to the wire, with the team that gets the ball last perhaps the most likely winner. I like the Cyclones to spring the mild upset on the road, and I also like the point total to creep OVER. Score: Iowa State Cyclones 33 – West Virginia Mountaineers 30