3 Reasons to Bet Against Alabama in College Football Playoffs

Top College Football Week 4 ATS Betting Picks

Written by on September 20, 2016

Welcome to this week’s edition of our top college football ATS picks for Week 4, including NCAA Football betting predictions for some of the top games scheduled for the upcoming weekend.

Here Are the Top College Football Week 4 ATS Betting Picks

Kent State at #1 Alabama, Saturday, September 24

Pick: Ken State (+43)
LETDOWN ALERT! The Crimson Tide (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are flying high and getting tons of praise as potential repeat national contenders after beating Ole Miss last week. But as has been the case for Alabama after big wins, a letdown could easily be in the offing in the next game, as players get a bit complacent with their game. Case-and- point, after beating #20 Wisconsin last seaon, the Tide won by just 27 vs. Middle Tennessee. Similar tame-scoring (but winning efforts) were evident after victories overt #8 Georgia, #9 Texas A&M, and #2 LSU in the course of the 2015 regular-season campaign. More than that, Kent State is coming into this game full of morale after ending a seven-game losing streak last week with a 27-7 win over FCS Monmouth. We are not crazy to suggest an outright upset from the Golden Flashes, but the combination of Kent State’s morale and the likelihood of Bama dialing down its tempo should allow the visitors a chance to cover the spread in this game.

#3 Louisville (-25.5) at Marshall, Saturday, September 24

Pick: Louisville (-25.5)
We have been talking about Lamar Jackson as a Heisman trophy hot-shot since Week 1 and how the Cardinals are for real in their playoff bid. And not to brag, but we even rightfully predicted that the Cards would upset the Seminoles in our bold week 3 NCAAF picks, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that we are high on them in this week’s NCAA Football lines vs. the Thundering Herd. Playing Clemson in Week 5 means the Cards will have a look-ahead factor that may see Jackson and some starters rested in the second half, and Marshall’s 21-2 home record in its last 23 home games means that the Thundering Herd will be strong dogs in this matchup. But last I checked, the Cardinals had no problem covering the spread as 17-point favorites in Syracuse (a game they won 62-28) ahead of last week’s meeting against Florida State, so doing the same at Marshall shouldn’t be a biggie. More importantly, there is more to Louisville than Jackson and its starters; the Cardinals have a No. 1-ranked scoring offense and a top-10 defense that includes a solid running game and efficient backups that can handle their own just fine in the absence of starters, as we saw in Week 1 and Week 2. Add to the fact that the Thundering Herd (as 17.5-point favorites) were trounced 65-38 AT HOME by Akron last week, we strongly believe that the Cardinals will be a solid value for you as three touchdowns favs over the disarrayed Marshall team this week.

#13 Florida State at South Florida, Saturday, September 24

Pick: Florida State (-6)
After getting bludgeoned at Louisville last week, the Seminoles will be out for blood this week, and that should mean good betting value on FSU this weekend when they take on the South Florida. Besides the revenge factor, the Seminoles are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball, which should give them a huge advantage over the Bulls. On top of that, the Seminoles have held the Bulls to 17-points or less in their last three meetings, and after playing poorly in defense last week, you can be sure that the Noles will be working a lot on their defense ahead of the meeting against the Bulls, who are scoring a hair under 50 points per game this season. The Bulls will get their points and make a game out of this clash, but FSU’s superiority should show down the stretch, leading to a comfy win plus cover for the visitors.

#19 Florida at #14 Tennessee (-6.5), Saturday, September 24

Pick: Florida (+6.5)
The Volunteers have started their season 3-0, but they have been far from convincing in any of those three games, a key reason why they are just 1-2 ATS on the year. Considering that those three games came against subpar opponents in Appalachian State, V-Tech and Ohio; it is quite telling that many pundits and bettors still trust them to beat Florida this week, and do so by more than a touchdown. Yes, the absence of starting quarterback Luke Del Rio, who’s been ruled out of the Saturday’s game with a left knee injury, will be a big blow for the Gators. But it’s not like the Vols will be all healthy; already starting CB Cam Sutton, LB Darrin Kirkland Jr. and backup LB Quart’e Sapp have been confirmed out of Tennessee’s lineup for Saturday. Florida’s backup QB Austin Appleby is not the best of replacements, at least going by the statistics he posted at Purdue, but he will be getting solid support from the Gators’ running game and a nation-best defense that is allowing just 4.7 PPG this season. In essence, that’s the reason why there has been a strong reverse line movement in this game (from -8 to -7.5 or lower in some books), indicating that sharp money is on the Gators even with Del Rio out. Combine that with the fact that Florida has won the last 11 meetings vs. Tennessee, we definitely side with the sharp money, recommending Florida to at least keep the game close to cover the spread, if not deliver an outright upset over the overhyped Volunteers.