Updated College Football: Favorite, Smart And Longshot Picks

Written by on November 16, 2016

After a wild and crazy Week 11 that saw three of the nation’s four teams all fall, college football bettors everywhere need to know that the latest odds to win the national championship have changed for several top title contenders. Thanks to my expert analysis on the favorite, my smart pick and longshot you’re going to have a great idea of just which team you should place your, still-available futures odds wager on. Now, let’s get started.

Analyzing The Updated College Football Odds: Favorite, Smart And Longshot Picks


The Favorite To Win the NCAA Championship

Alabama (4/5) Whether you’re tired or not of seeing the top-ranked Alabama Crimson (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) as an almost perennial favorite to win the national championship, the fact of the matter is that Nick Saban’s team is undoubtedly the odds-on-favorite to win their second straight national championship. Alabama has remained utterly dominant on the defensive side of the ball, ranking second nationally in total defense (260.0 ypg), first against the run (69.3 ypg) and second in points allowed (12.2 ppg). The Alabama Crimson Tide have a gifted young quarterback in dual-threat freshman Jalen Hurts and have held a whopping seven opponents to 10 points or less this season, including USC and SEC rivals, Tennessee and LSU. Again, there’s a reason the Tide are the favorites whether you like them or not.

The Smart Pick To Win the NCAA Championship

Clemson (12/1) The Tigers (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season by losing to Pittsburgh 43-42 last weekend, but I remain convinced that Clemson is the smart pick to upset the entire apple cart to win this season’s national championship. The Tigers have arguably the best quarterback in the country in dual-threat superstar Deshaun Watson and another gifted star in running back Wayne Gallman although he doesn’t get the credit I believe he fully deserves. For the season, Watson is completing a stellar 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,077 yards with 27 touchdowns, although he has tossed 13 interceptions. For his part, Gallman has been limited to just 670 rushing yards, but that’s mostly because he’s been under-used this season in carrying the rock just 138 times after carrying it 282 times last season for 1,514 yards and 13 touchdowns. The good news is that Gallman is averaging healthy 4.9 yards per carry and has reached the end zone 11 times already. However, what really makes me believer in Clemson is the Tigers’ 14th-ranked defense (328.0 ypg). While Clemson lost some star players on the defensive side of the ball to this year’s NFL Draft, the Tigers remain elite defensively and rank 12th nationally in points allowed. After losing to Alabama in last season’s national championship, the Tigers certainly have the motivation to get win it all this season – if they reach the four-team playoff that is!

The Longshot To Win the NCAA Championship

Louisville (6/1) At 6/1, the Cardinals (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) clearly aren’t viewed by oddsmakers as a longshot to win it all this season. However, as Louisville currently sits just outside of the four-team playoff rankings – thanks to their narrow loss against Clemson – the Cardinals are actually longshots whether they play like it or not. Still, like every other college football fan, follower or expert, I absolutely love virtually unstoppable quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals’ downright explosive offense and believe they could upset the entire apple cart if they somehow manage to find their way into the CFB Playoff. Led by the incomparable Jackson, Louisville is ranked first nationally in total offense by putting up an insane 583.2 yards per game while also ranking first in scoring by averaging a stellar 49.6 points per game. Jackson has put a virtual stranglehold in this year’s Heisman trophy race by passing for 2,898 yards with 27 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while adding an insane 1,336 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground. In addition to all of that, Louisville also has a very good, if underappreciated, defense as they rank 16th nationally in points allowed (20.3 ppg). Make no mistake about it, the Louisville Cardinals are dangerous with a capital ‘D’ and could beat any team in the country – if they get the chance.