NCAA Football Week 11 Odds Overview & Top Picks.

NCAA Football Week 11 Odds Overview & Top Picks

Written by on November 5, 2018

We’ve had our first coaching casualty at a Power 5 conference school as Kansas coach David Beaty is out. After a loss to Iowa State on Saturday in which the Jayhawks looked unprepared and uninspired, Beaty was let go with three games left in another disappointing season. That said, Beaty, who is 6-39 with just two Big 12 wins, will coach the remainder of the season. Here’s a look at two interesting matchups this week with NCAAF odds.


NCAA Football Week 11 Odds Overview & Top Picks


No. 16 Fresno State at Boise State (+2.5)

  • When: Friday, 10:15 PM ET (ESPN2)


Rather unusual to see Boise State getting points at home as it’s the first time the Broncos have since October 1999. This could be a preview of the Mountain West Conference title game. If the two schools do make it – Fresno State leads the West Division and Boise State is a game behind Utah State in the Mountain Division – it would mean the teams would play four times in a year.


That’s because they played twice last year. In the regular season finale, Fresno beat visiting Boise State 17-14. Marcus McMaryion threw for 332 yards and two scores, including an 81-yard strike to KeeSean Johnson for a 26-17 lead midway through the fourth quarter. It was FSU’s first win over a nationally ranked team in 22 tries dating to December 2004. It was the first time in nine games they beat a Top 25 Broncos team.


The next week in the MWC title game, Fresno was ranked and Boise wasn’t but the Broncos won 17-14 at home. Brett Rypien threw for 246 yards and engineered a 90-yard scoring drive late in the fourth quarter. Fresno hasn’t won at Boise since 1984. McMaryion’s final pass was intercepted by Leighton Vander Esch.


Fresno enters this one off a 48-3 rout of UNLV. The Bulldogs (8-1, 5-0 MW) totaled 466 yards of offense, passing for 274 yards and rushing for 192 while holding UNLV to one field goal, marking the third time this season Fresno State held a team out of the end zone. Fresno State’s six touchdowns were scored by six different Bulldogs, four rushing and two passing. McMaryion had his sixth straight game with multiple touchdowns passes throwing for two to two different receivers while finishing the game 26-of-35 for 274 yards.


Fresno State has won seven-straight games, their longest streak since 2013 (10), and have won 17 of its last 20 games. Fresno State is allowing 7.2 points per game in Mountain West games. Fresno owns the nation’s lead in limiting opponents under 30 points in consecutive games (20).


Boise State made a goal-line stand in the final seconds to beat visiting BYU 21-16 on Saturday. It looked like the Broncos were going to cruise, scoring on their first two drives to take a quick 14-0 lead, but managed to score just once more their final nine drives of the game. After 110 yards on those two touchdown drives, Boise State had 217 yards the rest of the way. Rypien was 23-of-35 for 214 yards with a touchdown and an interception but was mostly ineffective after the first quarter. The Broncos were 8-of-14 on third down, continuing their strong showing in tough situations. Boise State received 15 points in the latest AP Top 25, eight spots out of the rankings.


Latest NCAA Football Week 11 Betting Trends

  • Fresno State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State’s last 5 games
  • Boise State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Boise State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Boise State’s last 25 games at home


No. 8 Ohio State at No. 24 Michigan State

  • When: Saturday, noon ET (Fox)


The Buckeyes still control their fate to reach the Big Ten title game, but they didn’t look great again this past Saturday in a 36-31 win over Nebraska. The Huskers aren’t very good but led 21-16 at halftime. The Buckeyes scored twice in the third quarter and got a big 42-yard touchdown run from J.K. Dobbins with under five minutes left in the fourth to secure the victory. Dobbins scored a career-high three touchdowns on the day, finishing with 142 yards on 19 carries. Running mate Mike Weber also totaled 91 yards on nine carries. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins threw for 252 yards and one score. He completed 18 passes to eight receivers. Johnnie Dixon tied his career-high with five receptions for 96 yards and one score. Parris Campbell caught four passes for 31 yards and touchdown.


Haskins broke J.T. Barrett’s Ohio State single-season completion record and now has 242 on the year. Barrett previously held the record with 240 in 2017. Haskins is currently third in single-season passing (3,053 yards) and 278 yards from passing Joe Germaine’s 20-year old record of 3,330 yards set in 1998. Dobbins surpassed 2,000 career yards in the game. Along with Weber, they are the first running back duo on the same team in school history with 2,000 career rushing yards.


Ohio State should be one of your NCAA Football Week 11 Betting picks.


Ohio State leads the all-time series against Michigan State, 31-15. In the Urban Meyer era, the Buckeyes own a 4-2 record against the Spartans. Three of the six matchups have been decided by seven points or less. The Buckeyes won 17-16 in their last trip to East Lansing in 2016.


Michigan State features the nation’s No. 1-ranked run defense (71.7 yards/game) and No. 22 overall defense (325.1 yards/game) while Ohio State has the nation’s No. 3 passing offense (369.1 yards/game) and No. 5 total offense (547.2 yards/game).


Sparty is off a 24-3 win at Maryland, the program’s 700th all-time victory. Connor Heyward ran for 157 yards and two touchdowns to help the Spartans (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) become bowl eligible for the second year in a row. The Terrapins managed only 100 yards and nine first downs.


MSU is one of 27 schools in the FBS to own 700 victories. MSU’s all-time record is 700-456-44 (.602). Michigan State improved to 29-11 (.725) in November under Mark Dantonio. His teams have won 23 of the last 31 games in November. The Spartans are 72-8 under Dantonio when rushing 40-plus times in a game.


Latest NCAA Football Week 11 Betting Trends

  • Ohio State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Ohio State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio State’s last 6 games
  • Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
  • Michigan State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games


Expert NCAA Football Week 11 Predictions

Take Boise State and the Buckeyes.