2018 Home Run Derby Odds & Betting Preview

2018 Home Run Derby Odds & Betting Preview

Written by on July 16, 2018

While the Home Run Derby has long been an event that was, for many, the highlight of the All-Star festivities, it had begun to grow a little stale. Some changes to the format have brought it back to life, with seedings, timed at-bats, and rewards for distance all adding to the excitement once more. The 8 men taking part in this year’s event are not exactly huge names, but this event is more about the fun that it is about star power. Let’s now take a moment to break down all the match-ups as we seek to establish a 2018 Home Run Derby odds pick.

2018 Home Run Derby Odds & Betting Preview

  • Date: July 16, 2018
  • City: Washington, D.C.
  • Venue: Nationals Park
  • Participants: 8
  • TV: ESPN
  • Inaugurated: 1985
  • Current Champion: Aaron Judge
  • Current runner-up: Miguel Sanó


2018 Home Run Derby Odds to Win

  • Bryce Harper +140
  • Jesus Aguilar +300
  • Kyle Schwarber +300
  • Javier Baez +400
  • Max Muncy +500
  • Rhys Hoskins +550
  • Freddie Freeman +550
  • Alex Bregman +750


Jesus Aguilar (#1) vs Rhys Hoskins (#8)

Aguilar has 10 more home runs than Hoskins this season at 24 versus 14, but neither of these guys has really developed a reputation for being long ball hitters in their careers. I think it is Aguilar who has the distinct edge here, so no surprise winner in this one.

Kyle Schwarber (#5) vs Alex Bregman (#4)

This is a match-up where size may end up being important. As we mentioned earlier, long home runs in this competition come with rewards that give a distinct advantage to the power hitters. Schwarber is a big man who hits the ball hard and long when he connects. It is that advantage that should give him the leg up on the much smaller Bregman.

Bryce Harper (#2) vs Freddie Freeman (#7)

It’s a little disappointing that these two are meeting up in the opening round, as they are the biggest names in this year’s HR Derby. Harper is having an off year in terms of batting average, but he is still getting his HR balls. It has been a great year for Freeman thus far, and while he does have some pop in his bat, he appears to be up against it here.

Max Muncy (#3) vs Javier Baez (#6)

Muncy is a guy who has flown under the radar over the past couple of seasons, but once he got in the Dodgers lineup this season, he really started to fly, hitting 21 homers in just 71 games. Baez is a little off that pace but is still a very dangerous hitter. Max Muncy is one of the 2018 Home Run Derby Betting favorites. That said, this is a bit of a magical year for Muncy, and I like that to continue here. If these results hold as predicted, we will see Jesus Aguilar go up against Kyle Schwarber in the next round. This should be a fantastic match-up, and while Aguilar would seem like the pick here, I have a feeling that Schwarber is once again going to use his size and power to great effect. The other match-up in this round would see Harper and Muncy square off in another good one. Muncy has the opportunity to be the Cinderella story here, but I think Harper shines in his own ballpark.

Final 2018 Home Run Derby Odds Prediction

I have it as a final that will feature Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, a pair of hitters who can knock the cover off the ball. Harper has been under a rather negative spotlight over the course of the season, but I think he finally does something positive with the win here.

Last 10 Home Run Derby Winners

  • 2017: Aaron Judge
  • 2016: Giancarlo Stanton
  • 2015: Todd Frazier
  • 2014: Yoenis Céspedes
  • 2013: Yoenis Céspedes
  • 2012: Prince Fielder
  • 2011: Robinson Canó
  • 2010: David Ortiz
  • 2009: Prince Fielder
  • 2008: Justin Morneau