Atlanta vs Philadelphia 2022 MLB Expert Analysis

Atlanta vs Philadelphia | MLB Game Predictions & Betting Odds

Written by on June 29, 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies got some bad news on superstar Bryce Harper on Tuesday, and he won’t be in the lineup Wednesday against visiting Atlanta or for a while. The Braves are favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Braves at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Starting with this series, the Braves will play 15 of their final 88 games (17%) against the Phillies. They will play Philadelphia seven times over the final 19 games of the season. The Braves have not won the season set at Citizens Bank Park since 2016, when they went 5-4.

Star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. was absent from the Braves’ starting lineup for Tuesday’s series opener against the Phillies. Acuna Jr. got some encouraging news over the weekend when X-rays and an MRI exam showed no fracture in his left foot after fouling a ball off it during Saturday’s game against the Dodgers. He’ll get an extra day off and maybe can play Wednesday.

Acuna is hitting .281 with seven homers and 18 RBIs in his return this year from a torn ACL in his right knee. He leads the Braves with 13 stolen bases and has returned to an everyday role in right field after spending time as the designated hitter early in his comeback.

The Braves also have played closer Kenley Jansen on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 27, with an irregular heartbeat. Jansen has three times previously been placed on the injured list due to irregular heartbeats — once in 2011 and again in both 2017 and 2018. He’s had a pair of cardiac ablation procedures during his big-league career in hopes of fixing the issue.

The three-time All-Star has 20 saves with a 3.58 ERA through 32 2/3 innings, and secondary metrics like FIP (2.18), SIERA (2.07) and xERA (2.12) feel he’s been considerably better than that earned run average would indicate. That’s due largely to Jansen’s brilliant 36.4% strikeout rate. Will Smith or A.J. Minter could be called upon to close out games in Jansen’s absence. The Braves recalled Jesus Cruz to take Jansen’s place on the active roster.

It’s right-hander Kyle Wright (8-4) on the mound Wednesday. Wright allowed four earned runs on 10 hits and one walk while striking out four across 5.1 innings to earn the win last Thursday against the Giants. Wright was in trouble throughout the game, though he induced a double play in each of the first four innings to get out of jams. However, that didn’t happen in his final two frames when the Giants combined to score three runs.

Wright has a strong 3.18 ERA and 92:27 K:BB across 85 innings this season. However, he’s allowed 21 hits and nine earned runs across his last two starts — spanning 11.1 frames.

Wright is 0-3 with a 5.00 career ERA in 18 innings vs. the Phillies.

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Over their last six series against the Braves at home (since 9/9/19), the Phillies are 3-0-3 in series play with a 13-8 record (.619 win %) – the Phillies haven’t lost a series at home to Atlanta since July 26-28, 2019 (1-2).

Reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper fractured his thumb on Saturday when he was hit by a pitch by San Diego’s Blake Snell. The Phillies were hoping maybe he would return in 3-4 weeks but not it could be six or more as Harper will have surgery on that thumb.

While interim manager Rob Thomson did not reveal a firm timeline for Harper to return to the lineup, he did say the team is hoping Harper returning this season. Harper is hitting .318 with 15 home runs, 48 RBIs and a .985 OPS this season in 64 games despite a small tear in the UCL of his right elbow that has prevented him from playing the outfield since April 16

“It’s tough, but it’s probably the best thing for him. So whatever’s best for him is best for me,” Thomson said Tuesday. “If he’s able to come back, which we plan on, then that’s good under the circumstances.”

Harper was running away with the first-ever National League designated-hitter spot for the All-Star Game, far ahead of second-place William Contreras of the Braves and third-place Albert Pujols of the Cardinals. Offseason signees Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber will split time between one corner outfield spot and DH while Harper’s out of action. The Phils recalled Mickey Moniak over the weekend to join Odubel Herrera and Matt Vierling as other options.

It’s lefty Ranger Suarez (6-4) on the mound. Suarez (6-4) earned the win last Thursday over the Padres. He allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks with three strikeouts in 7.1 innings. Suarez threw 61 of 94 pitches for strikes and limited the damage to an Eric Hosmer solo home run in the second inning and a Jorge Alfaro RBI groundout in the eighth. It was Suarez’s longest outing of the season, and the sixth time in 14 starts he’s limited the opponent to two or fewer runs. For the year, he’s posted a 4.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 57:31 K:BB across 72.1 innings.

Game Trends

  • Braves are 11-4 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series.
  • Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
  • Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 Wednesday games.
  • Phillies are 12-2 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Braves are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Philadelphia.

Expert Prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 3


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