Atlanta vs New York Mets MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

Atlanta vs New York Mets | MLB Odds & Matchup Stats

Written by on August 4, 2022

The series of the weekend around Major League Baseball is from Citi Field in Queens as the Mets and Atlanta Braves face off with first place in the NL East potentially on the line. The Mets are favored on the MLB odds for Thursday’s opener.

How to Bet Braves at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 3-1 upset loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. Orlando Arcia went 2-for-3 and homered to supply the Braves with their lone run. He will remain the primary second baseman until Ozzie Albies comes off the IL. He has four homers and eight RBI in his last 12 games (nine starts).

Stellar rookie outfielder Michael Harris II was scratched from the Braves’ lineup Wednesday due to a sore right foot. Harris got hit by a pitch in that area on Tuesday night. Since June 13 among MLB rookies, his nine homers and 42 hits rank second, while his 24 RBI rank fourth. He is tied for fourth in bWAR (2.3) among all rookies this year.

All-Star catcher Travis D’Arnaud was also out of the lineup for Wednesday’s game due to a stomach bug. With a .190 average since the beginning of July, d’Arnaud was already beginning to lose out on playing time to William Contreras.

The Braves are slugging .474 with two outs, the best mark in baseball. Austin Riley has 30 two-out RBI, tied for the fourth most in the baseball and three off the lead of Texas’ Adolis García. With two strikes and two outs, Atlanta has scored 90 runs, the most in baseball. The club’s .619 OPS in these situations is second best in baseball and trails only the Dodgers’ .625 mark. The league average OPS with two strikes and two outs is .505.

It’s Kyle Wright on the mound here. Wright (13-4, 2.93 ERA) allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings in last Friday’s win over the Diamondbacks.  He also allowed five hits, issued two free passes, and struck out five. Wright was perfect through two innings, but he walked Jake McCarthy to lead off the top of the third. McCarthy would go on to hit an RBI single in the subsequent inning. And in the top of the fifth, Geraldo Perdomo hit a solo home run.

It was the right-hander’s fourth consecutive quality start, and he’s picked up a victory in each of those contests. Wright has won six of his past seven outings dating back to mid-June, and he has a 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 32:10 K:BB over 43 innings during that stretch.

Why Bet on NY Mets?

Before Wednesday’s game at Washington, the Mets activated right-hander Trevor May from the 60-day injured list. May appeared in eight games before the diagnosis and pitched to an 8.64 ERA. He arrived before last season on a two-year contract worth $15.5 million.

“I am not going to say he’s any given,” Manager Buck Showalter said of May. “But we think some of his inconsistency early on was due to [the injury] and we hope we have got that solved and I think people will be reminded why he was such a good piece for us last year. I am hoping that’s a good addition for us. Comparatively speaking to some other things, if we get him back right that is a big piece to add to our bullpen.”

Showalter said catcher McCann is on track to return from the 10-day injured list for Thursday’s series opener against Atlanta and will likely be part of a near-even timeshare at catcher with Tomas Nido in the short term. Showalter said he initially expects McCann and Nido to alternate turns behind plate in an effort to ease McCann back into the mix, but that arrangement won’t necessarily remain in place for the rest of the season. McCann has a much better track record of offensive success than Nido, but the 32-year-old was sitting on a career-worst .543 OPS before he was placed on the IL on July 10 with a left oblique strain.

Luis Guillorme started at third base Wednesday against a right-handed pitcher for the fourth time in the last five matchups, while Eduardo Escobar has played just once. The usage is an indication that the two will be deployed in a platoon at the hot corner moving forward. Guillorme should see the larger share of playing time of the two and is hitting much better than Escobar.

It’s Carlos Carrasco (11-4) here. Carrasco) earned the win over Miami last Saturday, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out seven batters over 7.2 scoreless innings. He allowed only one extra-base hit and prevented any runners from reaching third base en route to his 100th career victory. Carrasco was efficient, throwing 63 of 93 pitches for strikes in his second-longest outing of the campaign. He went through a rough patch in June but has turned things around dramatically in July, posting a 0.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 27:9 K:BB over 30 innings while compiling a 3-0 record. He’s held his opponent scoreless in each of his past three starts and hasn’t allowed any runs across his past 18.2 frames.

Carrasco is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 career innings vs. Atlanta. He last faced the Braves on May 3 at Citi Field and earned the win after 8.0 scoreless innings. Carrasco struck out five and walked two.

Game Trends

  • Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
  • Braves are 11-5 in their last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Braves are 40-19 in their last 59 vs. National League East.
  • Mets are 25-6 in their last 31 during game 1 of a series.
  • Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 Thursday games.

Expert Prediction: Mets 5, Braves 4


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