Braves vs Mets MLB Lines & Pick for Friday Night.

Braves vs Mets MLB Lines & Pick for Friday Night

Written by on June 28, 2019

Off a largely disastrous road trip, including losing two of three in Atlanta, the New York Mets return home on Friday to start a long homestand by hosting the NL East-leading Braves. Looks to be an excellent pitching matchup with the Mets expected to be favored on the MLB Odds.

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Why Bet on Atlanta?

One reason the Braves are in first place in the NL East was their trade earlier this season for Anthony Swarzak – you probably didn’t even know about it because it wasn’t exactly big news. When the Braves made the deal, the bullpen was ranked among the worst in baseball. But since acquiring the 33-year-old veteran on May 22, the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball. That group has a 2.67 ERA since the deal, the best ERA of any pen in the majors.

Swarzak has given up just 1 earned run on 7 hits and 6 walks over 16.2 innings with 20 strikeouts. Before the trade, he had given up 11 runs (8 earned) on 14 hits and 8 walks over 13.2 innings with 17 strikeouts with Seattle.

First baseman Freddie Freeman leads the majors with 29 RBI this month (as of Thursday), the most the first baseman has ever had in a calendar month. His previous high was 24 in August of 2016. Freeman is looking to become just the fourth Braves player to ever drive in 30 runs in a calendar month since the franchise moved to Atlanta in 1966. The last to do so was Mark Teixeira, who had 32 in August of 2007. The Braves have 126 home runs this season, the second most the club has ever hit prior to the All-Star break. The 2003 team had 140.

Expected to be NL Rookie of the Year candidate Mike Soroka for the Braves. Soroka will remain on schedule despite exiting Sunday’s start against the Nationals after his right forearm was hit by a pitch. He was plunked by an Austin Voth offering in the top of the third inning and then didn’t take the mound for the bottom of the frame. Soroka allowed one hit and struck out a batter in the first two innings of the game. He threw Wednesday and showed no reason for concern.

Soroka, 21, has been the most consistent presence in the Braves’ rotation. In his first full season, he’s produced a 2.07 ERA with 63 strikeouts against 19 walks over 13 starts. His ERA is second in the majors and Soroka could gain his first All-Star selection with another strong start.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 5.43
  • Hits: 9.11
  • Walks: 3.66
  • Strike Outs: 8.57


  • Runs: 4.88
  • Hits: 8.60
  • Walks: 3.74
  • Strike Outs: 8.59

Why Bet on NY Mets?

Should be a huge crowd in attendance as the Mets will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the 1969 Miracle Mets. Members of that team will be on hand this weekend.

It’s reigning NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom for New York. DeGrom gave up two runs on eight hits and no walks while striking out nine through six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. DeGrom was dominant in his fifth consecutive quality start, gathering 22 swinging strikes, including 15 on his slider. DeGrom had a callus rip off his foot in the game, but he said he was physically fine. The right-hander has a 4-6 record with a 3.25 ERA through 16 starts this season.

Could deGrom make a late run at All-Star consideration? He owns a 2.40 ERA over his last seven starts, with 54 strikeouts against just six walks in 45 innings. After a poor start, deGrom has reentered the NL’s Top 10 in most major pitching categories. Perhaps deGrom should stick with catcher Tomas Nido. He caught deGrom eight times this season. In those games, deGrom has posted a 1.53 ERA (nine earned runs/53.0 innings).

Braves vs Mets should be an easy victory for New York.

Two starts ago, deGrom struck out 10 while allowing two runs over 8 1/3 innings of work, earning the win in the Mets’ 10-2 romp over the Braves. DeGrom was even better than his final line indicates, as both Braves runs came in the ninth inning — on solo homers by Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson — after he’d eclipsed the 100-pitch mark. He’d given up just three hits to that point without walking a batter and striking out 10, the fourth time this year he’s hit double-digit strikeouts in a start.

When deGrom took the mound for the eighth inning, he had retired 20 of his last 21 batters. He finished the game having issued no walks on 113 pitches. It was deGrom’s 36th career game with double-digit strikeouts. Since his debut in 2014, only four other pitchers have more: Max Scherzer (70), Chris Sale (63), Corey Kluber (44) and Clayton Kershaw (37).

“That’s the best stuff I’ve had all year,” deGrom said then. “That’s why it was disappointing to give up those two homers at the end.”

Team Stats

  • Runs: 4.76
  • Hits: 8.77
  • Walks: 3.32
  • Strike Outs: 8.95


  • Runs: 5.16
  • Hits: 8.89
  • Walks: 3.38
  • Strike Outs: 9.11

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Braves vs Mets MLB Betting Trends

  • Under is 5-0 in deGrom’s last 5 home starts vs. Braves
  • Mets are 12-4 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Braves are 7-0 in Soroka’s last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record
  • Braves are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against NY Mets
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
  • NY Mets are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Mets’ last 10 games against an opponent in the National League East division

Expert Final Score Prediction for Braves vs Mets

Atlanta Braves 1 – New York Mets 4

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