There can be no denying that the 162-game season in the MLB is long and brutal, which is why we so often see teams start to go into a bit of a nosedive as the midway point of the season comes around. We are now just a matter of days away from the All-Star Break, when most players in the league get a few days off and the opportunity to recharge the batteries. The break very often comes at the perfect time for teams who have been going well but who suddenly look as though they are beginning to run out of steam.
It would be fair to suggest that the Milwaukee Brewers might well be in that category, as they are now on a bit of a losing streak and in danger of losing a 4-game series to the Cincinnati Reds, a team that you would ordinarily expect them to beat. These two will close out that series in an afternoon affair in Cincinnati on Independence Day, with the Reds having taken 2 of 3 at home. Despite those results, it is the Brewers who are favored by 1 ½, with the run total set at 9.
Brewers vs Reds MLB Odds, Game Info & Preview
- When: Thursday, July 4 at 2:10 PM EST
- Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
- Starting Pitchers: Woodruff vs. Castillo
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Radio: SiriusXM
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- MLB Odds: Milwaukee Brewers -125 (Total 9)
Why bet on the Milwaukee Brewers?
The Milwaukee Brewers are currently embroiled in the tightest divisional race in all of baseball. They are sitting on top of the NL Central, with a 1-game lead over the Chicago Cubs, but they are also just 4 ½ games up on the last-place team, which just happens to be the Cincinnati Reds.
This is a division that has been tight from start to finish, mostly because none of the 5 teams has been able to put together a consistent run of form that would allow them to open up a decent lead on the chasing pack. The Brewers have now lost back to back games to the Reds and are at 5-5 in their last 10 overall. They are also just 19-23 on the road, as well as being a poor 4-9 ATS as a road favorite. They will have Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA) on the mound for this one.
- Runs: 4.80
- Hits: 8.44
- Walks: 3.83
- Strike Outs: 9.56
- Runs: 4.87
- Hits: 8.77
- Walks: 3.44
- Strike Outs: 9.31
Why bet on the Cincinnati Reds?
The Cincinnati Reds have been a tough team to figure out this season. Usually, when you are sitting at the bottom of the division at this point in the season, you are usually starting to think about how things might go next year. That is not the case with the Reds, though, as they are just 4 ½ games out of the division lead and very much still in the hunt.
They are not just there by luck, though, as they are sitting on a +41 run differential right now, which tells you that they have been hanging around in most of their games this season despite being 4 games below .500. It will be interesting to see if they make any moves at the deadline. They will have the impressive Luis Castillo (7-3, 2.56 ERA) on the mound here.
- Runs: 4.33
- Hits: 7.92
- Walks: 3.04
- Strike Outs: 8.75
- Runs: 3.85
- Hits: 7.65
- Walks: 3.36
- Strike Outs: 9.60
Brewers vs Reds MLB Betting Trends
- Brewers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games this season
- Reds are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games played in July
- Reds are 29-24 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season
- Brewers are 148-112 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons
- Woodruff is 1-1 when starting against Cincinnati with an ERA of 8.68 and a WHIP of 1.608
- Castillo is 2-3 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 4.08 and a WHIP of 1.336
Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Brewers vs Reds
This looks to be a fantastic pitching match-up that we have in store for us today, so I would not be surprised to see the score of this one stay UNDER. The Brewers lead the season series 7-5, so look for them to bounce back with the win in a close one.
Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – Cincinnati Reds 3