Brewers vs Twins MLB Spread, Betting Analysis & Expert Pick

Brewers vs Twins MLB Spread, Betting Analysis & Expert Pick

Written by on May 27, 2019

World Series preview? No doubt that would have been laughed at entering this season, but the Minnesota Twins are a shocking powerhouse in 2019 and the Milwaukee Brewers came within one game of the Fall Classic last year and are contenders again. The teams open an interleague series Monday – bet on it now at MyBookie!

Brewers vs Twins MLB Spread, Betting Analysis & Expert Pick

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

Christian Yelich went 2-for-5 with a solo home run in Sunday’s win over the Phillies. Yelich bopped a solo home run off Vince Velasquez in the fifth inning, accounting for the first of four runs to cross the plate in the frame. By the time the dust settled on the inning, the Brewers were up 7-0 on the scoreboard. The All-Star outfielder has now gone yard in three of his last four games and is up to 21 homers and 43 RBI overall while hitting .325.

Yelich has now hit 6 homers on the first pitch and 15 of his homers have come within the first 2 pitches of an at-bat, both tops in the majors (no other player has double-digit home runs within the first 2 pitches of an at-bat). Dating back to the All-Star break last season, 29 of Yelich’s 46 home runs have come on either the first or second pitch of an at-bat.

Ben Gamel had his first career multi-home run game as a professional Sunday, hitting a solo home run in the third inning and a 2-run shot in the eighth inning, his third and fourth homers of the season. Gamel’s first homer snapped an 0-for-9 skid dating back to his last home run on 5/19.

Yasmani Grandal hit a solo home run in the fourth inning, his 10th of the season. The homer was Grandal’s fourth in his last 11 games, during which time he’s batted .313 (10-for-32) with 12 RBI, 11 walks, a .477 OBP and a 1.227 OPS. Grandal has reached base safely in 18 of his last 19 games and 19 of 21 games overall this month, reaching base at a .404 clip.

Lefty Gio Gonzalez (2-1) allowed three runs over five innings in Tuesday’s loss to the Reds. It was actually three runs over the course of the game’s first six batters, with a Nick Senzel leadoff triple and subsequent wild pitch plating the first run, followed by a Phillip Ervin RBI double and a Kyle Farmer run-scoring single. Gio settled in from there, finishing with just three hits and three walks allowed, but it was enough to saddle him with his first loss of the season. Through five starts the signing still looks like a sound one for the Brewers, as the southpaw owns a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 26 1/3 innings.

Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 6.43 ERA in 8 career starts against Minnesota (42ip, 30er). He has not faced the Twins since 4/22/16 with the Nationals. Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 2 career starts at Target Field (12ip, 2er).

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Are the Twins a secure bet in the MLB spread?

Max Kepler went 2-for-4 with a three-run home run and four total RBI in Sunday’s 7-0 win over the White Sox. The Twins were already holding a 4-0 lead at the time Kepler went yard for a three-run homer off Josh Osich with two outs in the seventh inning. He notched an RBI double earlier in the contest in addition. The outfielder has been swinging a hot bat of late, homering in each of his last three games and putting up multi-hit performances in six of his last 10 contests. He has driven in 10 runs in his last three games alone. Overall, Kepler is slashing .276/.348/.541 with 12 home runs and 33 RBIs.

Eddie Rosario hit his team-leading 16th home run in the third inning. Rosario is now hitting .394 (28-for-71) with three doubles, four home runs, 17 RBI and 14 runs scored in his last 17 games. The homers by Rosario and Kepler marked an MLB leading 104th for the Twins this season. They have now homered in 19 of their last 20.

With the win, the Twins improved to a major league best 36-16 and 20 games over .500, their most games over .500 since finishing 2010 26 games over. It marked their seventh sweep of the season, matching their entire total from 2018. They have won 19 games this month, their most since going 20-10 in August of 2017. The Twins have won 16 of their last 20 games overall and 11 of their last 12.

Michael Pineda (4-3) earned the win against the Angels on Tuesday, throwing six innings and giving up three runs on four hits and two walks while striking out three. The outing began roughly for Pineda as he allowed three runs in the first two innings, but he then settled down to hold the Angels scoreless the rest of the way. The Twins came back to score three runs in the top of the sixth to tie and four runs in the top of the seventh to put Pineda in position to claim the victory, which moved him to 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA on the season. It was Pineda’s third quality start in as many outings after garnering only one in his first seven starts.

Pineda is 8-3 with a 2.99 ERA (87.1 IP, 29 ER) and a .208 opponents’ batting average (66-for-318) in 15 career starts vs. the National League. He earned a 6-2 win at Philadelphia on April 6 of this season. This will be his first ever start vs. the Brewers.

Brewers vs Twins MLB Betting Trends

  • Twins are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague road games.

Expert Prediction for Brewers vs Twins

Twins 5, Brewers 4