Houston vs Boston MLB Odds Favorites to Win

Houston vs Boston | MLB Odds Favorites to Win

TBS has the national telecast of Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox matchup, although most Boston fans probably will be watching Game 1 of the NBA’s East Finals instead between their Celtics and the Miami Heat. The Sox are short favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Astros at Red Sox MLB Odds & TV Info

  • When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
  • Where: Fenway Park
  • Probable pitchers (away/home): Jose Urquidy/Nathan Eovaldi
  • TV: TBS
  • Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
  • Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -110, Astros +100 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Houston?

Coming into Fenway this week, the Astros are in a familiar position atop their division, and nearly baseball in general, thanks to a tremendous defense and pitching staff that has allowed the third-fewest runs in the sport.

Astros general manager James Click said that usual starting center fielder Jake Meyers (shoulder) is throwing at high intensity and taking live at-bats. Meyers, who injured his shoulder last postseason and underwent offseason surgery, is getting close to a minor league rehab assignment. Barring any setbacks, the 25-year-old could be back for the Astros at some point next month.

The Astros’ defense runs above average, according to FanGraphs, is 17.3 as a team. For example, a shortstop with a +10 Def is 10 runs better than the average fielder at shortstop. Houston, as a team, is a dozen runs better than the next American League team (Oakland and Cleveland are both tied at 5.3). The next-closest team in baseball is Arizona and even they’re considerably behind at 11.2. The pitching prowess, which includes a major-league best 2.09 starting ERA the past 20 games, comes after losing longtime legendary pitching coach Brent Strom

It’s right-hander Jose Urquidy (2-1) on the mound. Urquidy allowed one run over three innings last Thursday in a no-decision against the Twins. Urquidy struck out three batter and didn’t issue a walk before the game was suspended in the fourth inning due to rain. The 27-year-old has a 4.40 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 19/4 K/BB ratio across 28 2/3 innings (six starts).

Astros pitchers currently rank second in the AL in ERA (2.91), WHIP (1.12) and opponent OPS (.618), while ranking third in opponents average (.219). Houston’s seven shutouts tie as the most in the majors this season, along with the Angels, and immediately ahead of the Mets (6) and Cardinals (6). The Astros had just eight shutouts in 2021.

Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox and Astros have met in the Postseason in 3 of the last 5 years. The Sox won the 2018 ALCS (4-1) en route to their World Series championship while the Astros won the 2017 ALDS (3-1) and 2021 ALCS (4-2). Including the postseason, the Sox are 17-25 against the Astros since the beginning of 2017. The Sox are 7-13 against the Astros at Fenway Park in that time.

It’s really hard to explain how the Red Sox are fighting to stay out of the cellar in the AL East as there’s way too much talent for this team to be this bad.

Frenchy Cordero owns a 16.2 BB% that ranks seventh in the American League among hitters with 30+ plate appearances, per FanGraphs. His penchant for drawing free passes has been a welcome addition to a Red Sox lineup that ranks 29th in the majors with a 6.7 BB% this season. The Red Sox need hitters who can get on base. Boston is 26th in the majors with a collective .290 OBP. Four of their regular starters have an OBP that ranks in the bottom-21 among qualified AL hitters.

Boston ranks T-5th in the AL and T-8th in MLB in defensive runs saved (12). They rank 2nd in the majors in ultimate zone rating (7.7) behind KC (8.3). Red Sox outfielders lead MLB in ultimate zone rating (7.7) and rank 3rd in defensive runs saved (9).

It’s Nathan Eovaldi on the mound. Eovaldi pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed three runs last Wednesday against the Braves. Eovaldi struck out six and walked one in his latest solid performance. At this point in 2021, he was 4-2 with a 4.62 ERA. In 2022, though, he’s 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA through seven starts, with the Red Sox having scored three runs or fewer in each of his last five outings.

Eovaldi has allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his 7 starts this season, tossing at least 5.0 innings in 6. He ranks among AL leaders in ERA (13th, 3.15), WHIP (9th, 1.08), SO (T-6th, 42), starts (T-1st, 7), IP (T-5th, 40.0), SO/9.0 IP (6th, 9.45), BB/9.0 IP (5th, 1.58), SO/BB (T-3rd, 6.00), and SO% (6th, 25.8) and is one of seven AL pitchers to throw 7.0+ IP in multiple starts this season (2). Eovaldi has issued two walks or fewer in 24 of his last 25 starts, beginning on 6/14/21.

It’s been a weird season for Eovaldi, whose numbers don’t look bad but just aren’t ace level. He doesn’t seem to be pitching with the same kind of power he’s built a reputation for and as a result, hitters have burned him for nine home runs, the most allowed by any pitcher in the majors. To make matters worse, the game is at Fenway, where he’s struggled mightily this year. His strikeouts go down, walks go up and opponents hit .333 against him at home.

Game Trends

  • Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
  • Astros are 19-7 in their last 26 Tuesday games.
  • Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
  • Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Astros are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Expert Prediction: Red Sox 5, Astros 4


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