MLB Betting Online: Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners and AL Cy Young contender Luis Castillo

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The Toronto Blue Jays enter this week as one of three teams in the majors yet to play a home game but that ends Monday as the Jays host the Seattle Mariners, who are short underdogs on the MLB odds despite starting ace and AL Cy Young contender Luis Castillo

MLB Expert Analysis Seattle vs Toronto | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 2 2024 Season

How to Bet Mariners at Blue Jays MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:07 PM ET
Where: Rogers Centre
Probable pitchers (away/home): Luis Castillo/Jose Berrios
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Blue Jays -125, Mariners +105 (total 4)

Why Bet on Seattle Mariners?

The Mariners are 1 of 5 MLB teams with 88+ wins in each of the last 3 seasons (2021-23), along with the Braves, Astros, Blue Jays and Dodgers. Six different Mariners have a career OPS of at least .800 in road games (min. 200 PA): Luke Raley (.842 OPS) leads Mariners hitters, followed by Julio Rodríguez (.836), Mitch Garver (.812), Mitch Haniger (.809), Jorge Polanco (.807) and Cal Raleigh (.802). Since the start of the 2021 season, the Mariners have the sixth-best road record in the majors.

The Mariners were without regulars in first baseman Ty France, outfielder Haniger and Cal Raleigh for Sunday’s series finale at Milwaukee but all should play here. France is on the paternity list but Manager Scott Servais said he would be joining the team in Toronto. Closer Andres Munoz also was out Sunday but simply as he pitched in the first two games. He’ll be available here if needed.

Seattle already was thin in the bullpen with stellar setup man Matt Brash out. Brash began experiencing soreness in his elbow after throwing two bullpens to begin Spring Training, but received word from Dr. Keith Meister that he wouldn’t need surgery. We might see Brash by the end of the month. Not only did Brash lead all MLB pitchers with 78 appearances in 2023, he particularly switched gears in the season’s second half. After the All-Star break, Brash’s ERA dropped from 3.50 to 2.60, and his opponents’ batting average plunged to .219 from .262.

It’s ace right-hander Luis Castillo on the mound. He was among the preseason AL Cy Young betting favorites but has struggled out of the gate at 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. He didn’t finish the sixth inning in either, but this isn’t a new issue for Castillo. He’s traditionally been a slow starter with a career ERA of 4.07 ERA in March/April and 4.45 ERA in May.

Castillo comes off a loss last Tuesday against Cleveland, allowing four runs on 10 hits and a walk over 5.2 innings. He struck out seven. Castillo’s strikeout total was the only positive as he surrendered double-digit hits for just the third time in his career. He was tagged by Bo Naylor for a two-run homer in the fourth frame.

While Castillo’s velocity is still around the same as it usually is (averaging 95.8 mph), the command has definitely regressed. While he hasn’t used it as much as his four-seam fastball, the sinker is also causing some problems. Opposing batters are currently slugging 1.000 against the pitch over six plate appearances including a home run to Rafael Devers on Opening Day. What might also be contributing to these command/placement issues is a decrease in spin rate. Castillo lost 88 RPM on his four-seam fastball and 84 RPM on his sinker compared to last year’s averages.

The 31-year-old faced the Jays once last year and it was in Toronto. He allowed two runs over five innings of a no-decision.

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Why Bet on Toronto Blue Jays?

The MLB schedule-makers did the Jays no favors out of the gate as they played a 10-game, 11-day trip with three in Houston, four in St. Petersburg and three in New York. The Jays needed to start with a road trip as they continued renovations at Rogers Centre. This offseason, for example, foul territory was reduced by about 3,000 square feet. There’s also new artificial turf in place this season after the previous field was ripped out when the demolition process started last fall.

The Blue Jays’ 26-man roster contains four new faces this season, as Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, and Daniel Vogelbach all signed as free agents this offseason, while Brian Serven was claimed off waivers from the Cubs.

Turner got Sunday’s finale at the Yankees off and George Springer served as the team’s DH. Turner should be back in there for this one. He’s batting .286 with a homer and five RBIs. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Blue Jays have notched double-digit hits in a Major League-leading 201 games (2nd: HOU – 190 games).

Toronto remains short-handed in the bullpen with setup man Erik Swanson and closer Jordan Romano both working their way back from injury. Swanson (right forearm inflammation) has been a bit ahead of Romano (right elbow inflammation) throughout this process, and with this live bullpen session under his belt, he should soon be able to progress into a rehab assignment.

Romano’s return, which is probably two weeks away, would slide fellow relievers like Chad Green, Yimi García and Tim Mayza back into their natural roles and make this bullpen a legitimate strength for Toronto once again.

Catcher Danny Jansen also is on the injured list. Jansen fractured a small wrist bone when he was hit by a pitch on March 13. Injuries like this are nothing new for Jansen, unfortunately, but the Blue Jays believe he could be back early in the season.

Right-hander Jose Berrios (1-0, 2.25) takes the hill Monday. Berrios did not factor into the decision last Tuesday, allowing one run on six hits and three walks over six innings against Houston. He struck out two. Berrios held the Astros at bay, allowing a lone run on a Jose Altuve homer to lead off the fourth inning. The 29-year-old now has back-to-back quality starts to open the year after going 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 184:52 K:BB in 32 outings last season.

Still, while that 2.25 ERA looks good on the surface, the underlying 5.09 FIP suggests Berrios has been walking a tightrope. His 1.33 WHIP and a BABIP of .313 further indicate that while Berrios has been effective, there’s potential for regression if he doesn’t tighten up his command or rediscover his strikeout touch as he’s averaging only 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

Berrios last faced the Mariners on May 17, 2022, at Rogers Centre, pitching 7.0 shutout innings (6H, 2BB, 4K). Over season career starts vs. Seattle, he has a 3.27 ERA (16 ER/44.0 IP) with nine walks and 45 strikeouts.

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Mariners vs Blue Jays Expert Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Mariners 3

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