Guardians vs Red Sox: Betting the Odds, Picks & Prediction

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The Cleveland Guardians were expected to take a bit of a step back this season after losing manager Terry Francona to retirement and then ace Shane Bieber to a season-ending injury, but the Guardians are again contending in the AL Central as they continue their series in Boston on Wednesday night. The Sox are favored on the MLB odds

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Cleveland vs Boston | MyBookie Sportsbook MLB Week 3

How to Bet Guardians at Red Sox MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Ben Lively/Tanner Houck
TV: NESN; MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: NESN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -144, Guardians +104 (total 5.5)

Why Bet on Cleveland Guardians?

The Guardians’ defense has been pretty solid this season but Andrés Giménez has been great at second base. It didn’t take new manager Stephen Vogt long to learn that he can expect any ball hit to the right side of the infield to be an out.

Cleveland is overachieving because the team seems to take the same approach with every at-bat and inning pitched with up down or trailing in the game. “This team never quits, and I love it,” Vogt said. With the count at 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0, the Guardians lead the American League in OPS (.995).

Journeyman righty Ben Lively is expected on the hill Wednesday for the Guardians in his team debut. Lively will be reinstated from the 15-day injured list due to illness ahead of the game. The season-ending injury to Shane Bieber (elbow), along with a doubleheader with the Yankees on Saturday, opened up two spots in Cleveland’s temporary six-man rotation. Xzavion Curry and Lively will be called upon to fill the voids with Curry pitching really well in Monday’s series opener.

The Guardians are expected to condense their rotation to five men by the end of the week, however, so how Curry and Lively perform against the Red Sox will likely determine which of the two remains in a starting role moving forward. Lively wrapped up his two-start rehab assignment at Triple-A Columbus by covering 5.1 innings and 55 pitches last Tuesday. He allowed three earned runs on four hits and no walks.

“I’m going to attack everybody,” Lively said. “I’m going to go over the plate. I’m going to crush people off the plate and I’m just going to give everything I have for a zero.”

Lively bounced around three different MLB organizations between 2013-19 before taking a gamble by heading overseas to the Samsung Lions of the KBO. He pitched as a starter and amassed a 4.14 ERA in 36 starts between 2019-21 before his stint was cut short after suffering an elbow injury.

He signed with the Reds in 2022 and spent a year-and-a-half with Triple-A Louisville before returning to the majors in May ‘23 as a starter. In the last month of the season, he pitched out of the bullpen primarily as a long reliever, allowing nine runs in 12 innings. Overall, he finished the 2023 season 4-7 with a 5.38 ERA in 88.2 innings with Cincinnati. Lively was signed to a one-year deal worth $750,000 this offseason by Cleveland.

The Guardians split six games with Boston last season, scoring 32 runs and allowing 27. Cleveland is looking to win a season series vs. the Red Sox for the first time since 2018 (4-3). Josh Naylor entered this series batting .340 with 6 doubles, one home run, 18 RBI and an .878 OPS in 15 career games vs. the Red Sox and a .308 average at Fenway Park. Steven Kwan is hitting .364 in his career in Boston.

Cleveland Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Why Bet on Boston Red Sox?

The Red Sox probably didn’t have enough offense to contend for a playoff spot this season but now they really probably don’t with the season-ending surgery by shortstop Trevor Story due to a shoulder injury suffered in Anaheim on April 5. The 31-year-old Story, in the third season of a $140 million, six-year contract, was hitting .226 with four RBIs in eight games. He has been an injury-prone bust since getting that huge deal in free agency.

The Sox have been using a few players in Story’s slot but likely will mostly use offseason trade acquisition Vaughn Grissom as the primary shortstop when healthy. Grissom is expected to return from the IL soon as he continues working back from a groin strain. Grissom is a .287 hitter with a .746 OPS in 64 career MLB appearances. He had five home runs, 27 RBI, five stolen bases and a 0.2 WAR as a member of the Braves. He was acquired this winter in the Chris Sale trade.

Boston also may be without one of its best hitters again Wednesday in outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who was out of Tuesday’s lineup. He received eight stitches above his left eye and will go through concussion protocol after exiting Monday’s game versus the Guardians following a collision with Rafael Devers. O’Neill received the brunt of the collision in the outfield, as the back of Devers’ head met O’Neill’s face. O’Neill has been spectacular so far with a .313 average and seven homers.

“As any ballplayer on the field, I think that’s the worst play in baseball,” said Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford, who started Monday’s loss. “You’ve got the infielder running back on a blooper and you’ve got the outfielder running in hard on the blooper. It’s tough to watch. You don’t want to see two of your teammates lay on the ground. It’s tough to watch and it’s just one of the worst plays that can happen in baseball.”

The Sox are 5-0 in games when they hit multiple homers this season. They lead the AL and rank 2nd in MLB in first-pitch AVG (.418) and OPS (1.164), trailing only Atlanta’s .456 AVG and 1.208 OPS.

It’s right-hander Tanner Houck on the mound Wednesday. Houck (2-1) took the loss Friday against the Angels, allowing seven runs (four earned) on 12 hits over 5.2 innings. He struck out two. After blanking Anaheim through six innings in his last start, Houck faced a very different result the second time around. The Red Sox defense didn’t do him any favors, committing three errors.

Houck wound up allowing 13 hard-hit balls, which will likely go down as one of the highest totals in the majors for the season. Still a very nice start to the year for Houck as he now sports a 2.04 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 19:2 K:BB through his first three outings (17.2 innings). From October 1 last season through April 7 this year, Houck was one of four Red Sox pitchers in the Live Ball Era to make three consecutive starts of 6.0+ innings, 0 runs, and 4 or fewer hits allowed along with Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield and Chris Sale.

In years past, the biggest hindrance to Houck becoming a front-line starter has been his numbers against lineups the second and third time through the order. His career ERA his first time through the order is a stifling 1.87, but that jumps to 3.77 the second time through the order, and balloons to 11.57 his third time facing a lineup. This year, the Sox have allowed Houck to work deeper into games, and have been rewarded with better results. He has pitched into the sixth inning in all three of his starts and has not allowed an earned run his second time through an order, and just one run his third time through an order.

Boston will visit Progressive Field for a three-game series next Tuesday-Thursday to conclude the season set with Cleveland.

Boston Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Guardians vs Red Sox Expert Prediction

Red Sox 4, Guardians 3

MLB Conferences Winners

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