Mariners vs Guardians Odds, Expert Pick & Analysis

It’s a potential American League playoff preview on Tuesday night to open a series as the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners visit the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, who are short favorites on the MLB odds.

Seattle at Cleveland: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Odds: Guardians -118, Mariners -108 (total 8)
Score Prediction: Guardians 4, Mariners 3

Seattle Mariners Moneyline -105

Seattle leads the AL West by 8.5 games as of this writing – the team’s largest division lead since 2001 — and is riding a three-game winning streak after sweeping a weekend series vs. Texas with a 5-0 win Sunday.

Rookie Tyler Locklear hit a solo home run, as his -inning shot to left was his second since joining the team as a replacement for regular first baseman Ty France, who has been out with a heel injury.

It’s possible that France is activated Tuesday as he’s not expected to take a rehab assignment. Second baseman Jorge Polanco is currently on a minor-league rehab assignment due to a hamstring injury and not far behind. Polanco has been on the IL with the injury since May 27, after sustaining the injury on May 13.

The Mariners, who have been in first place for 36 straight days, have now won 16 of their past 21 games dating back to May 26, easily MLB’s best record in that stretch. Seattle is 17-7 (.708) in 1-run games, most 1-run wins in the big leagues.

Since Servais took over as Mariners manager (2016-c), Seattle owns the most 1-run wins (231) and best 1-run winning percentage (.570/231-174) in the majors during that span.

DH Mitch Garver has reached base safely in 9 of his last 12 games, getting on base at a .413 clip, slugging .571 with a .984 OPS, 3 doubles, 3 home runs, 11 RBI and 11 walks during that span. Garver got Sunday off but should be in there Tuesday.

It’s young righty Bryce Miller on the mound. Miller (5-5) allowed two hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven scoreless innings in a no-decision versus the White Sox last Wednesday.

Miller rebounded from his worst start of the year by producing his third scoreless outing in 2024. He tossed 64-of-92 pitches for strikes but lost the win when the bullpen blew the one-run lead in the ninth.

Two of Miller’s three scoreless efforts this season have come over his three starts in June. The 25-year-old has a 3.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 80:24 K:BB over 82.2 innings through 14 starts overall. He has a 1.82 ERA at home compared to a 5.94 ERA on the road.

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Cleveland Guardians Moneyline -116

Cleveland leads the AL Central by five games and is a stellar 21-8 at home. The Guardians do enter on a two-game skid, however, after losing 7-6 in Toronto on Sunday.

Outfielder Kwan went 4-for-5 with an RBI in the loss. Kwan has been unstoppable since returning from a hamstring injury May 31, hitting safely in all 11 games while batting a torrid .535 with one home run, six RBI and 11 runs scored.

The 26-year-old’s hot streak has propelled his average to .398, which would lead the league if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. It’s probably not sustainable as his BABIP is .418 compared to his career .320 BABIP.

Third baseman Daniel Schneemann went 3-for-4 with a two-run home run and two additional runs scored. Schneemann took Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios deep in the sixth inning to record his first big-league home run. He has more than held his own since making his MLB debut June 2, slashing .375/.483/.667 with one home run, five RBI and four runs scored across 29 plate appearances.

All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez was placed on the paternity list on Saturday and missed the final two games vs. the Jays but should be back Tuesday. He has hit 18 homers with 62 RBIs. The Guardians have 125 RBI with 2 outs this season, fourth most in the AL.

Josh Naylo leads the AL with nine 2-out homers while driving in 21 runs with two outs, third in the AL Ramirez has eight 2-out homers, trailing only Naylor in the AL.

Cleveland’s bullpen is just the 3rd bullpen since 1901 to have an ERA of 2.26-or-lower through the team’s first 69 games (min. 225.0IP), joining the 2015 Kansas City Royals (2.10, 53ER/226.2IP) and the 1976 Cleveland bullpen (2.05, 53ER/232.1IP).

It’s righty Triston McKenzie starting Tuesday. McKenzie (3-3) picked up the win last Tuesday, giving up two runs on four hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a 5-3 victory over the Reds. He struck out four.

McKenzie was pulled after 75 pitches (43 strikes) with the Guardians ahead 3-2, but the bullpen and offense were able to secure McKenzie’s first win since April 19.

He’s failed to complete six innings in any of his last four trips to the mound, but on the bright side, he kept the ball in the yard Tuesday after serving up eight homers over his three prior outings. McKenzie will take a 4.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 65:38 K:BB through 68 innings into Tuesday.

He is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA in four career appearances vs. Seattle. He faced them on April 1 this year and allowed five runs over 3.1 innings of a loss.

Bet Mariners at Guardians MLB Odds

When: Tuesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Bryce Miller/Triston McKenzie
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/