It’s the second straight weekend series between the NY Mets and Milwaukee Brewers starting Friday night from Miller Park as the teams will already conclude their 2019 set barring a playoff matchup – which isn’t happening. The Brew Crew are favored on the latest MLB odds.
Mets vs Brewers MLB Spread & Pick for Friday Night
- When: Friday, 8:10 PM ET
- Where: Miller Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Steven Matz/Gio Gonzalez OR Brandon Woodruff
- TV: MLB Extra Innings
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: The Big 1070
- MLB Spread: Milwaukee Brewers -130 (Total 8.5)
These teams met last week in Queens and the Brewers won two of three. The Mets avoided a sweep with a 5-2 win in the series finale. J.D. Davis put New York ahead 3-2 with a line drive pinch-hit single against reliever Alex Claudio in the seventh inning. Amed Rosario scored from second after reaching when Ben Gamel dropped his flyball in right field with Jacob Barnes pitching. Milwaukee scored a combined 18 runs in winning the first two games by multiple runs each.
Why Bet on NY Mets?
Young slugger Pete Alonso should be back in the lineup after getting Thursday off. Alonso has cooled off somewhat but still boasts a .291/.378/.627 batting line with nine home runs and 26 RBI through his first 30 major league games.
Should the Mets be worried about closer Edwin Diaz? He has given up two game-winning homers this week. On Wednesday, he was brought in to preserve a scoreless game in the ninth inning and failed to get the job done. He surrendered a solo dinger to Jose Iglesias. Jesse Winker did the trick on Monday. Diaz now has two losses, eight saves, and a 2.13 ERA in 14 games. He has 21 strikeouts against two walks and three homers allowed in 12 2/3 innings.
Lefty Steven Matz (3-1) secured the win after allowing two runs on five hits and striking out four over seven innings last Sunday against Milwaukee. Matz cruised through the first six innings before surrendering a two-run blast by Mike Moustakas, his only blemish of the game. Matz has been rock-solid in each of his past two outings, giving up three runs over 13 innings while striking out 10.
Matz was the Mets’ best pitcher in April and it wasn’t particularly close. Take out his eight-run blowup in Philadelphia, and Matz went 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA the rest of the month. Matz has allowed six hits or fewer in all six of his starts this season and each of his last 15 outings dating to August 16 of last season. He allowed three hits or fewer in 15 of his 36 starts since the start of last season. Among non-opener starting pitchers, only Blake Snell (17), Jhoulys Chacín (17) and Justin Verlander (16) have more games allowing three hits or fewer.
- Runs: 4.84
- Hits: 8.71
- Walks: 3.81
- Strike Outs: 9.55
- Runs: 5.45
- Hits: 8.77
- Walks: 3.87
- Strike Outs: 9.65
Why Bet on Milwaukee?
Will reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich return to the lineup? Yelich left Sunday’s game with discomfort after his lower back stiffened up after trying to make a break for a steal and hasn’t played since. Yelich took some light swings in batting practice Thursday, which was to provide the Brewers with a better idea of how his back is feeling heading into the weekend. Christian Yelich (.353, 14 HR, 34 RBI) was named Brewers Player of the Month for March/April Yelich has won the award in each of the last four months dating back to the 2018 season.
With 14 HR in March/April, Yelich tied Albert Pujols (2006), Alex Rodríguez (2007) and Cody Bellinger (2019) for the most in Major League history prior to May 1. Yelich produced 34 RBI in March/April, which tied for the third most in franchise history for a calendar month.
Mike Moustakas has hit safely in 8 of his last 9 and 14 of his last 17 games dating back to 4/8, during which time he’s batted .317 with 13 runs, 6 homers, 13 RBI and a 1.037 OPS. In comparison, he batted .156 (5-for-32) with a .677 OPS in his first 10 games.
Lefty Gio Gonzalez surrendered two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out two over five innings in last Sunday’s no-decision against the Mets. Gonzalez toed the rubber in a big-league game for the first time this season after starting three games at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre while with the Yankees.
Milwaukee, who was in desperate need of an experienced starter, signed the veteran lefty and immediately moved him into the starting rotation. The 33-year-old didn’t disappoint in the series finale, as he kept the Brewers in the ballgame and departed in a tie after tossing 82 pitches, 55 for strikes.
If it’s not Gonzalez, it will be right-hander Brandon Woodruff. He was supposed to pitch Thursday but pushed back. Woodruff (3-1) struck out six and picked up the win over the Mets last Saturday, allowing one run on six hits and a walk over five innings. This was arguably as sharp as the right-hander has looked all season, although Woodruff did sprinkle in an HBP and a wild pitch among his 87 pitches (58 strikes). He’ll take a 5.17 ERA and 38:10 K:BB through 31.1 innings into his next start.
- Runs: 4.91
- Hits: 8.12
- Walks: 3.55
- Strike Outs: 9.52
- Runs: 5.33
- Hits: 8.76
- Walks: 4.00
- Strike Outs: 8.85
Mets vs Brewers MLB Betting Trends
- Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee
- Mets are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets’ last 5 games this season
- Brewers are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games against NY Mets
Expert Final Score Prediction for Mets vs Brewers
NY Mets 5 – Milwaukee Brewers 4