Miami vs San Diego 2022 MLB Expert Analysis

Miami vs San Diego | MLB Betting Favorites, Analysis & Prediction

Despite still playing without injured star Fernando Tatis Jr., the San Diego Padres remain right in the mix atop the NL West. The welcome the Miami Marlins for the start of a four-game series on Thursday with the Padres as favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Marlins at Padres MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Miami?

Joey Wendle didn’t start any of the team’s three games this week vs. Arizona with a hamstring injury that is being called minor. The versatile infielder is sitting on a solid .300/.364/.450 batting line with one home run and four stolen bases.

One of the team’s big offseason additions was outfielder Avisail Garcia, but he’s hitting just .177 with one homer. He took a seat Wednesday, his first day off since April 17 after he went 1-for-12 with a run and six strikeouts over the last three games. Garcia should start this one. Another outfielder Jesus Sanchez, also got Wednesday off from the starting lineup. Over the last three games, Sanchez went 1-for-11 with two doubles, a walk and four strikeouts.

The Marlins are the only team in the Major Leagues this year that have 10-or-more stolen bases and 6-or-more triples. Miami is tied for the Major League lead in triples with Cleveland with seven. The Marlins have stolen 13 bases, good for fourth in the NL. Miami was the first team since the 2015 World Series Champion Kansas City Royals to steal at least 10 bases and have at least 6 triples in their first 17 games of the season.

It will be lefty Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.10) on the mound. Luzardo struck out five while allowing one run over six innings in the Marlins’ 3-1 victory last Saturday over the Mariners.  Luzardo allowed just two hits and struck out five. He induced just five swing and misses, but his command was outstanding, and he was locating everything in another strong start.

Luzardo makes his second career start vs. San Diego. He allowed 4 runs in 4.2 innings pitched against the Padres on Sept. 4, 2020. Luzardo has just one win in 17 career road outings (8 starts), going 1-6 with a 7.03 ERA away from his home ballpark. That lone road win came on June 1, 2021 at Seattle (w/Oakland), tossing 3.0 scoreless innings of relief.

Why Bet on San Diego?

Bit of a tough spot for the Padres as they had to play a doubleheader in Cleveland on Wednesday and then fly all the way back home. The only series the Padres have lost so far have been against NL West opponents (dropped 2 of 3 @ Giants and 2 of 3 vs. the Dodgers). The Padres are 6-5 this year when allowing their opponents to score 1st.

First baseman/DH Luke Voit began a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A El Paso. Voit has been sidelined since late April due to biceps tendon soreness. He will likely require a few minor league tune-up games before rejoining the Padres’ lineup. That may happen this series but probably not Thursday.

After excellent campaigns with the Yankees in 2019 and 2020, injuries have been a huge issue for Voit. Last year, he made multiple trips to the IL due to various injuries, only getting into 68 games on the year and hitting a disappointing .239/.328/.437. This year, he’s struggling to a line of .143/.315/.167 in 13 games.

It’s Nick Martinez (1-2) on the mound. Martinez scattered two earned runs over five innings in a win over the Reds last Thursday. Martinez struck out five, walked two, and gave up five hits en route to claiming his first MLB win since June 25, 2017. The 31-year-old right-hander has with a 4.12 ERA and 18/12 K/BB ratio through 19 2/3 innings (four starts) for the Padres, who signed him out of Japan this winter for four years, $20 million.

Martinez pitched for the Rangers from 2014 to 2017 before moving to Japan to play for the Nippon-Ham Fighters. He was great in Japan last year (1.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 146 strikeouts in 149 2/3 innings). He pitched for Team USA in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, earning a silver medal in the process. The Padres signed Martinez to a one-year contract, but he has player options for the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons.

Game Trends

  • Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series.
  • Marlins are 19-46 in their last 65 road games.
  • Marlins are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Marlins are 12-41 in their last 53 games as a road underdog.
  • Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
  • Padres are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
  • Over is 10-2-2 in the last 14 meetings in San Diego.

Expert Prediction: Padres 5, Marlins 3


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