Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati Match Preview, Predictions & Betting MLB

Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati | Match Preview, Predictions & Betting MLB

The Cincinnati Reds are absolutely terrible this season but will get a dose of potentially good news Monday with the season debut of ace pitcher Luis Castillo off injury. Cincinnati is still a big home underdog on the MLB odds against Milwaukee.

How to Bet Brewers at Reds MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers come off a 9-2 loss in Atlanta on Sunday. The Brewers suffered their first series loss (of more than a game) since opening the season by dropping 2 of 3 at Wrigley Field.

Omar Narvarez went 0-for-4 with a walk Sunday. Narvaez has walked in four straight games, but he isn’t hitting much at .220 with just three extra-base hits and five RBI through 70 plate appearances. His lone home run came back on April 14.

Third baseman Luis Urias got Sunday off. Urias was activated from the injured list Tuesday and started the previous games, and he was 6-for-17 with a home run, four walks, two RBI and five runs during that span. He’ll be back in there Monday.

Through 11 appearances this season, Josh Hader is 11-for-11 in save opportunities and has not allowed a run (10.1ip). Opponents are 2-for-34 (.059) with 4 walks and 16 strikeouts. Hader currently has 498 career strikeouts in just 292.2 innings (15.31 K/9IP). The fastest to 500 career strikeouts is Aroldis Chapman in 292.0 innings.

It’s Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 5.18) on the mound. Woodruff gave up three runs over 5 2/3 innings in last Tuesday’s win over the Reds.  Woodruff allowed four hits and struck out 12, tying a career high. He generated at least one whiff on all five of his pitches (36 percent whiff rate).

It was the 12th double-digit strikeout game of his career and first this season and the 10th time in franchise history that a Brewers pitcher had 12 or more strikeouts in a game without a walk. The team is 4-1 in Woodruff’s starts this year, winning each of his last 4 outings. Opponents are batting .231 (21-for-91, 2hr) off him.

Woodruff is 5-3 with a 3.22 ERA in 12 career games/10 starts against the Reds (58.2ip, 21er), including 1-2 with a 1.93 ERA in 4 games/3 starts at Great American Ball Park (18.2ip, 4er).

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds actually have won two of three, which is impressive considering they are 5-23 overall. They beat the visiting Pirates 5-3 on Sunday.  Colin Moran hit a grand slam in the sixth and a two-run homer in the eighth. He came into Sunday batting just .184/.259/.204 in 58 plate appearances for the Reds. He’s getting extra playing time with Joey Votto out.

Reds skipper David Bell told reporters on Sunday that it would still be a couple of days before Nick Senzel and Votto return to the Reds lineup. They are both on the COVID-19 injured list — Senzel since May 4 and Votto since May 3.

The Reds’ current injured list includes 14 players. They began the season with 8 players on the injured list, their highest total to begin a season since they began the 2014 campaign with 8 players on the disabled list. Since Opening Day, the have made 13 more additions to the injured list – including Jonathan India, Tyler Naquin & Nick Senzel twice each.

The Reds have played the toughest schedule in the Major Leagues. In games already played, their opponents have posted a winning percentage of .588. The winning percentage for the teams remaining on the Reds’ schedule is .522, fourth-highest.

It’s right-hander Luis Castillo on the mound in his season debut. Castillo (right shoulder strain) made 3 rehab starts in the minors. Last Wednesday, he started for Triple-A Louisville and allowed no runs over 4.1 innings.

Last season in his first 11 starts, he was 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA before a big turnaround. Castillo had a 2.73 ERA over his final 22 outings. Having an ace like Castillo back in peak form would stop losing streaks, prevent bullpen overuse and create confidence. It would also help younger pitchers like Hunter Greene, Vladimir Gutierrez and Nick Lodolo to watch him work and feed off of what he does.

Game Trends

  • Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games.
  • Brewers are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a road favorite.
  • Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
  • Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.
  • Brewers are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 5, Reds 3
 
 

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