Philadelphia vs. San Diego MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Philadelphia vs. San Diego | MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on June 23, 2022

An excellent National League series between playoff contenders opens Thursday night as Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies start a West Coast trip at the San Diego Padres, who are favored on the MLB odds behind Cy Young favorite Joe Musgrove.

How to Bet Phillies at Padres MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies have won 11 of their last 12 games when they score four runs in a game. Overall this year, the Phillies are 30-15 (.667 win %) when they score at least four runs.

The Phillies got superstar Bryce Harper back in the lineup for Wednesday’s series finale at Texas. Harper had been out since last Friday with a blister. Overall, Harper has played in 33 of the Phillies’ 36 wins this year – in those 33 games, he is slashing .397/.465/.752 with a 1.217 OPS.

Harper’s 1.217 OPS in wins is tops in the National League in 2022 and 4th in MLB behind Mike Trout (1.383), Yordan Alvarez (1.305) and Taylor Ward (1.283) – of note, Harper’s 1.217 OPS in wins this year almost mirrors his 1.232 OPS in wins last year when he took home his second career MVP Award. Since the All-Star break last year, Harper’s 86 extra-base hits are most in MLB, eight ahead of Paul Goldschmidt who ranks 2nd with 78.

Second baseman Jean Segura remains on the injured list. The veteran infielder is expected to be sidelined until at least late August after undergoing surgery earlier this month on his fractured right index finger.

It’s Ranger Suarez (5-4) on the mound Thursday. Suarez yielded three runs in 5 2/3 innings for a win last Friday in the first game of a doubleheader against the Nationals. Suarez got just six missed swings and gave up quite a bit of hard contact, but he was able to get a couple of double play balls and survive. It’s been a disappointing for 2 1/2 months for one of 2021’s biggest surprises. The Phillies are 8-5 in his starts, even though he has a 4.43 ERA.

No one realistically expected Suárez to replicate his 2021 season. After all, the 26-year-old finished with a 1.36 ERA in 106 innings spread out between the rotation and bullpen. Suarez became just the 22nd pitcher in MLB history and the first since Bruce Sutter in 1977 to throw at least 106 innings and have an ERA of 1.36 or better.

Suarez is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 3.2 career innings vs. the Padres.

Why Bet on San Diego?

The Padres have played 11 extra-inning games this year and have won 8 of them, both of which are the most of any team in baseball this year. The Friars have had 20 come-from-behind wins this year, the most of any team in MLB.

Will the Padres have star third baseman and NL MVP candidate Manny Machado in the lineup? He hasn’t played since spraining his ankle on Sunday but the team continues to hope he doesn’t land on the injured list. Machado is batting .328 with 12 homers and 46 RBIs. He has largely carried the Padres’ offense in the absence of All-Star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who remains out while rehabbing his surgically repaired left wrist. Machado has also played outstanding defense at third base.

Tatis said Wednesday that he’s been swinging a bat at about 40 percent intensity in recent days. “We’re just trying to take stock of where he’s at. We’re not pushing anything,” manager Bob Melvin said, regarding Tatis’ recovery from left wrist surgery. “But we’re in a period here where something could change from day-to-day or week-to-week.”

Melvin returned Wednesday against Arizona after being sidelined by COVID-19 protocols for 11 games. Melvin said he’s been asymptomatic for the last nine days. He went into the protocols in between games of a doubleheader on June 11. He said he felt a little scratch in his throat and tested positive. “The next day I had no symptoms. I’ve had no symptoms the entire time since.” The Padres went 6-5 without Melvin.

It’s ace Joe Musgrove on the mound as he will come off the COVID list. The 29-year-old right-hander stands 8-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 81/17 K/BB ratio in 79 innings (12 starts) this season for San Diego. He has recorded a quality start in each of his 12 appearances, becoming the seventh pitcher since 1994 to begin a season with at least that many in a row.

Expert Prediction: Padres 4, Phillies 2


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