MLB Phillies vs Brewers Betting Analysis: Last Meeting Of Season

MLB Phillies vs Brewers Betting Analysis: Last Meeting Of Season

The Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers wrap up their season series on Wednesday from Beer Town – although it’s very possible they could see each other in the playoffs. The Brewers are favored on the MLB odds behind Freddy Peralta. It’s time we take a closer look at both teams and how they arrive to this last meeting so you can bet against their MLB odds.

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Since June 1, the Phillies are averaging 5.10 runs per game, which is first in the National League. They have averaged 5.76 runs per game on the road, which leads MLB over that span. Since July 1, the Phillies are 25-3 in games in which they score at least 5 runs. Overall, the Phillies are 46-11 this season when they score at least 5 runs (.807 win %).

In 43 games since the All-Star break, Bryce Harper is slashing .329/.458/.696 — his 1.154 OPS would be the third highest in franchise history following the All-Star break (min. 200 PA) behind only Howard (1.259 OPS) in 2006 and Schmidt (1.214 OPS) in 1981.

It’s Kyle Gibson on the mound for Philly here. Gibson has been good since coming over from Texas in a trade overall but was pounded for eight runs in 5 1/3 innings by the Marlins last Friday. Through five innings, the only damage against Gibson was a three-run homer by Jesus Sanchez in the first inning. The Marlins then erupted for seven runs in the sixth, with five of those being charged to Gibson. He was not supported by good defense in the frame. Three plays could have been made behind him but weren’t. Only one, a throw by third baseman Freddy Galvis, was ruled an error.

Entering the game, Gibson had registered a quality start in 18 of his 24 starts this season with Texas and the Phillies. He joined the Phillies in a deadline deal last month and had racked up a quality start (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs) in each of his five starts with the club. His ERA jumped from 2.94 to 3.30 through 155.1 innings this season. Since joining the Phillies, Gibson’s expected wOBA has been above league average, and in his last 100 PA it is .327, which translates to a 4.63 expected ERA. His saving grace has been his minuscule home run of 0.58 HR/9.

He’s now 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA for his new team and 10-6 with a 3.30 ERA overall. Gibson is 1-2 with a 5.66 ERA in six career starts against Milwaukee.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers are without one of their best players in shortstop Willy Adames as on Sunday he landed on the 10-day injured list with a left quadriceps injury. Since coming over to Milwaukee from Tampa in a rare early-season trade, Adames has been spectacular. Though his line for the Rays this year was a paltry .197/.254/.371, his line as a Brewer is .294/.375/.529 with 17 homers, producing a wRC+ of 141 and 3.6 fWAR. Luis Urias will be the primary shortstop while he’s out.

Freddy Peralta (9-4) gets the call on the mound for Milwaukee. Peralta surrendered four runs on three hits over two innings in last Friday’s loss to the Cardinals. Peralta had been out of the rotation with shoulder inflammation for the past two weeks before being activated from the injured list for Friday’s start.

The right-hander fanned two in the first inning against the Cards, he also surrendered a two-out, two-run home run to Nolan Arenado. The second inning proved no less problematic, with the frame starting out in sequence with a hit-by-pitch, a walk and two singles. After giving up two runs, Peralta struck out the final two batters in the inning before calling it a night. He finished his two innings having thrown 53 pitches (30 for strikes).

Overall, he has a 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 168/53 K/BB ratio (123 1/3 innings) this year. The team is 16-7 in his starts and he has made 12 quality starts. Opponents are batting .153 (66-for-430, 11hr) off Peralta. He pitched in Philadelphia on May 5 and was tagged for five runs in four innings in his first loss of the season. All of the runs came in the first, most on Didi Gregorius’s grand slam.

Game Trends

  • Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
  • Phillies are 1-7 in their last 8 Wednesday games.
  • Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
  • Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 during game 3 of a series.
  • Phillies are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 4, Phillies 3

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