Phillies vs Padres MLB Lines, Analysis & Prediction

Written by on June 3, 2019

We have spoken more than once about how tough it is to win consistently over the course of a 162-game season in the MLB, and how every teams needs to tough it out through a negative run of form or two. What makes things worse when things go bad for a spell is that those poor runs usually coincide with another team going on a great winning streak. This is how divisions races that look to be heading in one direction suddenly start to shift in another. There are a number of teams who have built up solid leads in their division, but at this stage of the season, you can bet that none of them are resting on their laurels. One team that definitely cannot afford to let up is the Philadelphia Phillies, as they are seeing their lead in the NL East beginning to shrink. Things are not about to get any easier for Philly, as they will start the new week on the road to face the San Diego Padres. The Phillies are favored by 1 ½ here, with the run total set at 7 ½.

Phillies vs Padres MLB Lines, Analysis & Prediction

Weather Forecast

  • Sunny: 18°C/65°F
  • Humidity: 73%
  • Precipitation: 5%
  • Wind: 9 mph WNW
  • Cloud Cover: 14%
  • Type of Stadium: Open

Why bet on the Philadelphia Phillies?

Given that the Phillies have the lead in the NL East, you would imagine that they think of themselves as being among the best that the NL has to offer. They may be questioning that after ending their week losing 4 in a row, including a sweep at the hands of the LA Dodgers. That run takes the Phillies to 33-26 on the season, but perhaps more importantly, it cuts their lead over the Braves in the East to just a single game.

The west coast swing will continue for Philly this week with a series in San Diego. At just 13-15, the Phillies have not been totally convincing away from home, although they are 7-5 ATS as a road favorite. They will look to get back on track with Aaron Nola (6-0, 4.18 ERA) on the mound.

Team Statistics

  • Runs: 4.86
  • Hits: 8.20
  • Walks: 3.86
  • Strike Outs: 8.88
  • Runs: 4.51
  • Hits: 8.93
  • Walks: 3.36
  • Strike Outs: 8.58

Why bet on the San Diego Padres?

Are the Padres a safe bet in the MLB lines on Monday?

The San Diego padres made a bit of a splash in the offseason, landing Manny Machado in free agency in a move that has yet to reap dividends. Machado has 9 HR and 24 RBI, numbers that are probably well off the pace that the Padres would have been hoping for. The reality here, though, is that the Padres are not really getting much offense from anyone, scoring just 232 runs through 59 games.

The Padres have struggled at home, sitting a game below .500 at 15-16, and after closing out last week with back to back losses, they are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall. Where they have been a good bet is against the spread as a home dog, where they are 6-1 ATS. Eric Lauer (4-4, 4.45 ERA) will take the mound for the Padres.

Team Statistics

  • Runs: 3.93
  • Hits: 7.54
  • Walks: 2.58
  • Strike Outs: 9.83
  • Runs: 4.41
  • Hits: 8.15
  • Walks: 2.47
  • Strike Outs: 8.93

Phillies vs Padres MLB Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games
  • The total are UNDER in 4 of Phillies’ last 6 games
  • Padres are 2-5 SU in the last 7 games
  • The total went UNDER in 13 of the Padres’ last 20 games played in June

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction for Phillies vs Padres

There are a couple of bets that I like here, the first of which is the OVER. Sure, runs have been hard to come by for the Padres, but I still think 7 ½ is beatable. I also like the Padres to cover in their own ballpark.

Philadelphia Phillies 5 San Diego Padres 4