How to Bet Reds vs Nationals MLB Spread & Expert Pick.

How to Bet Reds vs Nationals MLB Spread & Expert Pick

Written by on August 14, 2019

The best pitching matchup of Wednesday around the majors is clearly from Washington as it’s a duel of nasty right-handers in the Reds’ Trevor Bauer and Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg. The Nats are favored on the MyBookie MLB Odds.

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Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 30°C/86°F
  • Humidity: 63%
  • Precipitation: 21%
  • Cloud Cover: 58%
  • Wind: 8 mph N
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

Aristides Aquino hit his eighth homer in 12 big-league games Monday against the Nationals. That’s a record for most by a player in his first 12 games. Bear in mind that Aquino played one game last season and didn’t homer in the first two games played this season. The 25-year-old as recently as last winter so unheralded a prospect that the Reds dropped him from the 40-man roster and let him become a free agent. He was the Reds’ minor league player of the year in 2016 at class A-advanced, but struggled mightily at double-A in 2017 and 2018, and it looked like he had topped out.

Aquino has an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, which is better than the league-average mark, and he’s got a hard-hit rate of 47.8 percent versus a league-average mark of 34.4 percent. Aquino this season also boasts an expected batting average of .341 and an expected slugging percentage of .764 — both exceptionally high figures. Over the weekend, Aquino became the second player in modern Major League history with a 3-homer game within his first 10 career games (Bobby Estalella, 10th game, 9/4/1997).

It’s Trevor Bauer on the mound for the Reds. Bauer (10-8) struck out 11 and picked up the win Friday, giving up one run on three hits and two walks over seven innings in a 5-2 victory over the Cubs. Making his home debut for Cincinnati, the right-hander served up a solo shot in the first inning to former AL Central rival Nicholas Castellanos and then got down to business, fanning seven of the next nine batters he faced en route to his first win with his new club.

He was effective with four pitches, using his curveball and slider often to get 11 strikeouts. Bauer also threw fastballs and was hitting 95 at the end of his night. Bauer will take a 3.74 ERA and 200:68 K:BB through 168.1 innings into his next start Wednesday. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, among all starting pitchers with at least 300 innings, Bauer ranks sixth in strikeouts (421), sixth in ERA (2.96), and 10th in innings pitched (343.2). he has faced Washington just once and beat them in 2016.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 4.59
  • Hits: 8.39
  • Walks: 2.91
  • Strike Outs: 8.68
  • Runs: 4.26
  • Hits: 8.04
  • Walks: 3.39
  • Strike Outs: 9.56

Why Bet on Washington?

Closer Sean Doolittle acknowledged Tuesday that his workload has contributed to his recent struggles. Doolittle scuffled again while converting a save Monday against the Reds and has now allowed six runs in his last three appearances.

“I haven’t really amassed this kind of bulk in several years,” said Doolittle. “There’s nights like last night where you feel a little bit out of whack, a little bit sluggish. It catches up to you after a while.”

Doolittle has amassed 50 2/3 innings with a 3.73 ERA this season. He has a lengthy injury history, so he hasn’t topped 51 1/3 innings since 2014. With Trea Turner’s 11th home run on Monday night, the Nationals now have eight players with at least 11 home runs this season, the most of any club in the National League.

Reds vs Nationals is going to be a close one

It’s Stephen Strasburg (14-5) on the bump. Strasburg surrendered three runs on four hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings Friday against the Mets. He didn’t factor into the decision. Strasburg turned in a quality start, giving up three runs in the fourth inning on a pair of home runs. Though his team didn’t get the win, the 31-year-old did manage to bounce back after getting knocked around in his last start Saturday, when he allowed nine runs in 4.2 innings against the Diamondbacks. Strasburg owns a 3.72 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with a 181:38 K:BB over 152.1 innings this season for Washington.

Strasburg also put himself in the team’s record books during Friday’s start. By striking out three batters in the first three innings, Strasburg passed Steve Rogers for the most strikeouts in franchise (Nationals/Expos) history.

The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four games against the Reds when Stephen Strasburg is on the mound. He is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA across those four starts, dating back to July 3, 2016.

Team Stats

  • Runs: 5.01
  • Hits: 8.72
  • Walks: 3.50
  • Strike Outs: 8.26
  • Runs: 4.60
  • Hits: 8.42
  • Walks: 3.14
  • Strike Outs: 9.33

Reds vs Nationals MLB Betting Trends

  • Reds are 7-18 in their last 25 Wednesday games
  • Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburg’s last 4 starts vs. Reds
  • Over is 4-1 in Strasburg’s last 5 starts vs. Reds
  • Reds are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games played in August
  • Nationals are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 6 games played on a Wednesday

Expert Final Score Prediction for Reds vs Nationals

Cincinnati Reds 2 – Washington Nationals 4

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