The Minnesota Twins have the American League’s best record and the largest division lead in the majors. They look to extend both on Tuesday when they visit the rival Cleveland Guardians. However, the Tribe are favored on the MLB odds.
Twins vs Indians MLB Lines, Betting Analysis & Expert Pick
- When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Progressive Field
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Devin Smeltzer/Shane Bieber
- TV: MLB Network
- Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: Minnesota / Cleveland
- MLB Lines: Indians -128, Twins +118 (total 9)
Why Bet on Minnesota?
Taylor Rogers struck out the side in a scoreless ninth in Sunday’s win over the Rays, earning his fifth save of the season. In succession, the 28-year-old southpaw struck out Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe to close out the contest, requiring all of 11 pitches (nine strikes) to get the job done. Rogers is now 5-of-7 in save opportunities while pitching to a 2.08 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 34/6 K/BB ratio in 26 innings. Blake Parker has received more ninth-inning opportunities, but Rogers also gets his save chances.
The Twins activated DH Nelson Cruz from the 10-day injured list, and he will be in the lineup Tuesday night’s series opener against the Indians after missing around three weeks of action with a left wrist strain. The veteran slugger has batted .270/.354/.508 with seven home runs and 22 RBI in 35 games this season with Minnesota. Luis Arraez was optioned back to Triple-A Rochester on Sunday in a corresponding 25-man roster move.
The Twins have scored three-or-more runs in 26 consecutive games, dating back to May 6 at Toronto, setting a single-season franchise record.
It’s rookie Devin Smeltzer on the mound. Smeltzer didn’t factor into the decision in Tuesday’s 5-3 win over the Brewers, allowing only three hits over six scoreless innings while striking out seven.
Making his major-league debut, the left-hander did give up some hard contact — including a Yasmani Grandal triple in the second inning that took Byron Buxton (knee) out of the game after he crashed into the center-field wall trying to chase it down — but otherwise Smeltzer was impressive, firing 53 of 69 pitches for strikes before exiting.
Since the start of May, Twins starters have gone 19-6, 2.99 ERA, an opponent batting average of .231 and an opponent OPS of .661. On the season, the Twins have three pitchers with seven wins: Martín Pérez (7-2), José Berríos (7-2) and Jake Odorizzi (7-2). Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have multiple seven-plus game winners in Hyun-Jin Ryu (8-1) and Kenta Maeda (7-2), and no other team in baseball has more than one pitcher with seven wins.
- Runs: 5.98
- Hits: 9.48
- Walks: 3.17
- Strike Outs: 7.64
- Runs: 4.10
- Hits: 8.24
- Walks: 2.74
- Strike Outs: 8.76
Why Bet on Cleveland?
Francisco Lindor went 3-for-4 with a double in the Indians’ shutout loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Lindor accounted for half of the Indians’ six hits and was their lone bright spot in a dismal offensive effort against White Sox’ starter Lucas Giolito. It was only the fourth time Cleveland has been shut out all season. The 25-year-old shortstop hasn’t missed a beat after being sidelined for the majority of April due to injury. He owns a.293/.363/.484 triple-slash line with 24 runs scored, eight homers, 20 RBI and six stolen bases across 179 plate appearances.
Carlos Santana ranks 3rd in the Majors in average exit velocity (min. 150 batted ball events) at 93.6 MPH behind only Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell (94.6) and Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich (94.3).
The Indians have been a disappointment in 2019, but closer Brad Hand hasn’t with a perfect 16-for-16 in his save chances, and an ERA of 1.14 over 25 appearances and 23 1/3 innings. If Cleveland decides to become sellers — unlikely at this point, but not impossible — Hand could become a top trade target.
It’s Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.67) on the mound. Bieber is slated to make his 13th appearance and 12th start of the season. The 24-year-old earned his 4th win of the season on May 29 at Boston, allowing six runs on eight hits with no walks and six strikeouts over 5.0 innings in the Tribe’s 14-9 victory. He improved to 10-1 in 17 appearances (16 starts) in his career on the road.
Bieber will be making his 5th career appearance and 4th start against Minnesota. He holds a 1-0 record with a 4.58 ERA (10ER/19.2IP) all-time vs. the Twins. Bieber allowed one run in 2.0 innings of relief on March 31 in his lone appearance against Minnesota in 2019. His last start vs. the Twins came July 30, 2018 at Target Field, allowing four runs on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts over 6.1 innings.
Bieber holds a 1-1 record with a 2.97 ERA (12ER/36.1IP) in 6 starts at Progressive Field this season and a 5-6 mark with a 4.64 ERA (44ER/85.1IP) in 15 appearances (14 starts) all-time at home. He is 6-2 with a 3.66 ERA (31ER/76.1IP) in 13 appearances (12 starts) in his career against the AL Central, including a 1-1 record with a 3.74 ERA (9ER/21.2IP) in four appearances (3 starts) against the division in 2019.
- Runs: 3.97
- Hits: 7.32
- Walks: 3.81
- Strike Outs: 8.71
- Runs: 4.24
- Hits: 8.08
- Walks: 2.80
- Strike Outs: 9.34
Twins vs Indians MLB Betting Trends
- Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland
- Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings
- Twins are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games
- Twins are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland
- Indians are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games
- Indians are 6-1 in Biebers last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record
Expert MLB Prediction for Twins vs Indians
Indians 6, Twins 5