LFA 100: Altamirano Vs Smith Expert Analysis

LFA 100: Altamirano Vs Smith Expert Analysis

Written by on February 18, 2021

It’s another big night of MMA action set to go in Park City, Kansas this coming Friday, as LFA 100 will offer up a title fight that is a little different than originally expected. Carols Mota was supposed to be the man going against Victor Altamirano for the vacant Flyweight Championship, but after the Brazilian bowed out of the fight, Nate Smith stepped up to take his place. That makes things very different indeed, with the headline event now part of a 5-fight main card that looks to be a good one. Let’s dig a little deeper into all 5 fights and make some picks as we go so you can bet against their MMA odds.

LFA 100: Altamirano Vs Smith | MMA Betting Analysis

Steven Nguyen (-325) Vs Jorge Juarez (+245)

It’s always interesting to see how a fighter will react to taking their first ever loss, which is what we will get a look at in this Flyweight bout that opens the main card. Steven Nguyen was on a roll, winning each of his first 6 fights as a pro before being KOed in his last fight. Prior to that, he had finished 4 of his 6 fights early. Juarez has been up and down of late, going 2-2 in his last 4 fights to take his career mark to 5-2. 5 of his last 6 fights have failed to go the distance, so I expect this one to finish early, too, with Nguyen getting the win.

Gerald Scott (-190) Vs Tommy Aaron (+155)

It is the Lightweights who are up next in what promises to be a bit of a bruiser. Gerald Scott is looking to maintain his unbeaten start, as he is currently 4-0 as a pro, with no less than 3 of his wins coming in the opening couple of rounds. Aaron is 6-4 in his career and now has losses in 2 of his last 3 fights, but this is a guy who always comes out swinging and has to be considered dangerous. That aside, I still think Scott gets the KO win.

Christian Natividad (-1250) Vs Evan Woolsey (+680)

While the average fight fan hopes that every fight on the main card is an eve battle that goes the distance, there is usually one that seems set to be lopsided. This Bantamweight bout looks like it might slip into that category as unbeaten Christian Natividad is in as a huge favorite over Woolsey. Both fighters are still early in their careers having fought just twice each, but you have to say that Natividad looks a class above.

Charles Johnson (-260) Vs Karlee Pangilinan (+200)

The co-main event of the night is a Flyweight bout that has all the makings of a good one. Johnson is in as the favorite here, but he really needs to do better than what we have seen of late, as he has now lost 2 of his last 3 fights. Pangilinan comes into this bout with a perfect 6-0 record, with each of his last 3 fights failing to go beyond the second round. I think this one will go the distance, and I am going with the upset pick and taking Pangilinan.

Victor Altamirano (+130) Vs Nate Smith (-160)

It’s always a little disappointing when we don’t get the fight that we were expecting, but you also have to say that Nate Smith is a very adequate replacement for Mota. Smith is coming off a loss his last time out, but he had won 6 in a row prior to that one, with each of his last 5 ending inside the distance. Altamirano is 8-1 in his pro career, but it is worth noting that he remains unbeaten when fighting in the LFA. That is important and is one of the reasons why I think he ends the night as the champion.