There are two very different trains of thought at play when it comes to the NASCAR season.
MyBookie Stock | 2024 NASCAR Vegas Odds | NASCAR Cup Series: Shriners Children’s 500
In the playoffs, there is a premium placed on winning, with individual race winners automatically moving on to the next round and getting a step closer to a championship. While it is still great to win in the regular season, it is more about picking up points and staying as high as possible in the top 16. This is not to suggest that drivers don’t want to win every race they take part in, but the regular season is just a little more forgiving when a driver has an off week. The 4th race of the 2024 Cup Series season goes this coming Sunday in Phoenix, with the bookies already releasing the odds for the Shriners Children’s 500. Let’s take a closer look at some of the favorites.
NASCAR Race Odds and Favorites to Win Shriners Children’s 500
- Kyle Larson +525
- Ryan Blaney +625
- William Byron +700
- Ross Chastain +825
- Denny Hamlin +875
- Kyle Busch +1050
Kyle Larson
It’s still very early in the season, but Larson is already showing that he means business by taking the top spot in the driver standings after the opening 3 races. It did not take him long to pick up his first win, which he achieved in Las Vegas last weekend. Winning races in back-to-back weeks is no easy feat, but it is something that Larson has done in the past, particularly in his 2021 championship winning season when he had a pair of 3-race win streaks to his name. He certainly like this Phoenix track and is in the top 5 more often than not when he races there. He definitely looks like the man to beat this weekend.
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Ryan Blaney
One race does not a season make, unless of course a driver is in the final four and wins the final race of the year. Ryan Blaney has proven that after a rough start to the 2023 season at the Daytona 500. He bounced back from that performance to deliver back-to-back podium finishes and looks set to potentially keep that streak alive this weekend in Phoenix.
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William Byron
Byron could not possibly have asked for a better start to the new Cup Series season, taking the checkered flag at the Daytona 500 in the opening weekend. He ran a rather disappointing 17th in week 2 in Atlanta, but he got back into the top 10 with a solid run in Las Vegas last weekend. Byron is another driver that seems to save his best for the Phoenix oval, winning this race last season and landing in the top 5 in Phoenix in the Championship Round at the end of 2023. He could certainly come away with the win on Sunday and no one would be surprised, but since I am taking Blaney to win this one, I am suggesting that a top 5 finish for Byron might be the safer way to go.
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Ross Chastain
In just his second full season in the Cup Series, Chastain took a massive step forward, coming ever so close to winning the championship but being forced to settle for 2nd overall. That was in 2022, but last year was more of a struggle, with Chastain going out of the playoffs relatively early on his way to a 9th place overall finish. He will be looking to bounce back this year and is off to a very decent start, finishing in the top 5 in each of the last 2 races after a less than stellar start to the year at the Daytona 500. Chastain finished 24th in this race last year, but he won in Phoenix in the final race of last season.
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Denny Hamlin
Over the last 5 seasons, we have come to expect a deep playoff run from Hamlin, as he has finished no worse than 5th overall during that period of time. He has failed to make the Championship Round in each of the last 2 seasons, though, so his goal this year is probably to get back into that elite group at the end of the year. He does have 5 total wins over the past 2 years, so he still knows his way to the finish line, although he is still looking for the first win of the 2024 season. In his last 4 races in Phoenix, Hamlin has not won, but he has cracked the top ten twice. Realistically, I think a top 10 finish is the best we can hope for this weekend.
Lines to Win
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Kyle Busch
There was a time when betting on Kyle Busch to at least land in the top 10 was about as sure a thing as you could get. It has not been that way for a couple of seasons now, though, and while he did make the playoffs in both seasons, he went out in the Round of 16 both times. The start he has made to this season suggests that we might be about to see more of the same. Busch did have a podium finish in Atlanta in the second race of the year, but he bookended that one with a pair of less than spectacular runs. Busch did have a top 10 run in this race in 2023, so that might be the way to go again if you want to wager on him this weekend.
Lines to Win
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There is always the chance of a surprise in any given NASCAR race, but I really think that the winner will come from the group of drivers listed above. To me, Ryan Blaney is the driver that I will be taking to win this weekend. At the very least, I would put some money on him to land in the top 5, but this just feels like a race that is there for him to take.
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