Baltimore vs New York Yankees | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Baltimore vs New York Yankees | 2022 MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on May 23, 2022

The American League East rival Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees open a series in the Bronx on Monday with the Yanks as heavy favorites in the MLB Odds for the game behind ace and Cy Young contender Gerrit Cole.

How to Bet Orioles at Yankees MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jordan Lyles/Gerrit Cole 
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio:
Opening MLB Lines: Yankees -300, Orioles +270 (total 8 runs) | Bet Now

Why Bet on Baltimore?

While the Orioles aren’t very good, they do have one reason to be optimistic about their future: Rookie catcher and former No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman, who made his MLB debut on Saturday and had a triple in a loss to the Rays. He became the first catcher to triple for his first hit since Brad Davis of the Marlins in July 2010. In Orioles history, he joined Manny Machado and Matt Wieters as highly-touted prospects to do the same.

He’s wearing No. 35, the same number as former Orioles pitcher and Hall of Famer Mike Mussina.  Rutschman, the overall top draft pick in 2019 out of Oregon State, was hitting .309 with 3 home runs and 9 RBIs this season in 19 games across three levels of the minors in 2022. He played 123 games for Double-A Bowie and Norfolk in 2021, batting .285 with 23 home runs and 85 RBIs. Rutschman, 24, suffered a strained right triceps during a minor league intrasquad game in March, delaying his start to the season.
“You want to believe that we’re turning the corner and that we’re starting to play competitive AL East baseball,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said, “and [that] we have the type of players that are going to be able to compete and win a division.”

First baseman Ryan Mountcastle was pulled from Sunday’s game against the Rays due to heat-related cramping. Mountcastle was just activated from the injured list on Saturday after missing time with a left wrist strain. He’s considered day-to-day.

Anthony Santander’s 12.1 percent walk rate this year places him in the top 12 percent of the league, according to Statcast; last year, his 5.3 percent walk rate ranked in the bottom eight percent of the league. His .357 on-base percentage and .779 OPS are second in the AL among switch hitters.

It’s Jordan Lyles (2-4, 4.11 ERA) on the mound. Lyles pitched seven innings and allowed three runs — two earned – last Wednesday in a loss to the Yankees. Lyles struck out eight, his high total since last May 28 against the Mariners, and walked none. Lyles holds a career ERA of 4.76 (9 ER/17.0 IP) against the Yankees with all three career outings coming this year. Lyles owns an overall 3.12 ERA through four starts in May.

“He’s doing what we thought he was going to do,” Hyde said of Lyles following his last start. “This is an extremely tough division to pitch in. He’s answered the bell every time. He’s given us a chance to win every time out.”

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

The Yankees purchased the contract of catcher Rob Brantly from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Brantly joins the Yankees after Kyle Higashioka landed on the COVID-19 injured list. The 32-year-old backstop has hit .224/.287/.324 across 453 career plate appearances in the major leagues. Outfielder Joey Gallo also landed on the COVID list.

After leading the Grapefruit League in home runs during spring training, Higashioka is batting .154 with no homers over his first 24 games (65 at-bats) and has seen catcher Jose Trevino’s playing time increased. Gallo Is batting just .176 with five homers.

Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club. It’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee.

New York also has lost key reliever Chad Green to season-ending Tommy John surgery. Green exited Thursday afternoon’s game at Baltimore after experiencing right forearm discomfort.

“It’s tough news,’’ said Manager Aaron Boone, with Green in his free agent walk year. “But also with the surgery, there’s usually some certainty with it’’ to return to form.

It’s ace right-hander Gerrit Cole (4-0) on the mound. Cole held the Orioles to two runs in seven innings in the Yankees’ 3-2 win Wednesday. He has feasted on the Orioles in his career, going 5-1 with a 1.57 ERA in eight starts.

Cole had a dramatic five-out start in Detroit in April, but since then has turned things around. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last five starts, allowing just six earned runs for a 1.67 ERA. His strike rate, walk rate and strikeout rate have rebounded since that awful start. His 2.89 ERA is top 20 in MLB.

Game Trends

  • Orioles are 31-85 in their last 116 vs. a team with a winning record
  • Orioles are 13-42 in their last 55 vs. American League East
  • Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 road games vs. a right-handed starter
  • Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 Monday games
  • Yankees are 10-2 in their last 12 vs. American League East
  • Orioles are 20-45 in the last 65 meetings in New York

Expert Prediction
Yankees 5, Orioles 2 | Bet Orioles vs Yankees Now