Hornets vs Hawks Play-In Tournament: 2022 NBA Expert Betting Analysis

Hornets vs Hawks Play-In Tournament: 2022 NBA Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on April 13, 2022

The Eastern Conference No. 10 seed Charlotte Hornets visit the No. 9 Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night in the play-in tournament. The loser’s season is over and the winner advances to the final East play-in game Friday. The Hawks are favored on the NBA odds.

How to Bet Charlotte at Atlanta NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7 PM ET
Where: State Farm Arena
Stream: ESPN app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Hawks -4.5 (total 236)

Season Series

Charlotte and Atlanta split four meetings. In their most recent meeting on March 16, Atlanta fell in Charlotte 116-106. De’Andre Hunter led Atlanta with a team-high 21 points while Trae Young dished out a team-high 15 assists. Clint Capela notched a 17-point, 15- rebound, double-double, marking his seventh outing of 15+ points, 15+ rebounds of the season. LaMelo Ball had 22 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds, and P.J. Washington scored 13 of his 16 points in the fourth quarter to lead the Hornets.

Why Bet on Charlotte?

The Hornets have ruled out Gordon Hayward for this game and probably for the season with continued discomfort in his left foot. In his second season with the Hornets, Hayward is averaging 15.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 31.9 minutes per game in 49 contests (48 starts) but he has barely played since the All-Star break. Hayward initially suffered a sprained ankle on Feb. 7 and missed 22 consecutive games before returning for Charlotte’s game on April 2 against Philadelphia. He hasn’t played since then.

It’s the first time in the playoffs for most of these Charlotte players. By making the All-Star Game in his second season, LaMelo Ball joined elite company as the fourth-youngest All-Star in NBA history, trailing Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Magic Johnson.
Ball had one of the top offensive seasons from a young player, averaging 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game as he is just one of four players in NBA history to average 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game in a season prior to their 21st birthday. He was one of 10 players this season to average 20-5-5 and is one of eight players to average 20.0 points or more before turning 21 over the last 10 seasons. Ball is one of 10 to score 1,500+ points in a season as he finished with 1,508 points along with 571 assists and 501 rebounds making him just the second player to total 1,500 points, 500 rebounds and 500 assists in a season prior to turning 21 years old.

Miles Bridges has emerged as the Hornets’ leading scorer this season at 20.2 PPG. Ahead of hitting restricted free agency, Bridges increased his usage rate (a career-high 23%) and is creating his own shot on a more regular basis. Despite a drop-off from 3-point range, he’s maintained his accuracy inside the arc. Bridges also added 559 boards, 300 assists and 67 blocks and is just one of two players in franchise history to post 1,500 points, 500 rebounds, 250 assists and 50 blocks in a single season along with Larry Johnson (1991-92). He was one of five players to post those numbers this season along with Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Hornets led the NBA by averaging 28.1 assists per game. As a percentage of field goals made, Charlotte ranked third in assist rate (66%).

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Hawks have ruled out starting forward John Collins and bench player Lou Williams. Collins hasn’t played in about a month due to a foot injury but perhaps could return for Round 1 of the playoffs. Williams probably wouldn’t have played much if at all in this game so not a big loss.

The Hawks compiled a 27-14 record at State Farm Arena during the 2021-22 regular season, tied for the third-best home record in the Eastern Conference. Since a 121-114 win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Jan. 17, Atlanta has won 19 of its last 22 games played inside State Farm Arena. Over those 22 games, the team is averaging 121.4 PPG and 26.8 APG (.498 FG%, .389 3FG%, .829 FT%).

The Hawks committed an NBA-low 11.9 turnovers per game during the 2021-22 season. During the regular season, Atlanta had seven players averaging 10-or-more points (min. 50 games played). No other team had that.

Trae Young led the NBA in total points (2,155) and total assists (737) this past season becoming just the second player in NBA history to lead the league in both categories in the same season, joining Tiny Archibald (1972-73 season). The fourth-year point guard registered an NBA-leading 42 point/assist double-doubles, tied with Mookie Blaylock for the most point/assist double-doubles in a single season in franchise history (1993-94).

Young tallied an NBA-leading 20 outings of 30-or-more points and 10-or-more assists, the most such games in the NBA since the 2016-17 season. Young has a reputation for being an excellent high-volume 3-point shooter — he’s sixth in the East with 8.0 attempts per game with a 38.2% clip — but he’s not Atlanta’s only deep threat. The Hawks are second in the NBA in 3-point percentage (37.4%) and have 10 players with at least 100 3-point attempts — the worst percentage among that group being Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot at 36.1%. That number is still better than 19 NBA teams this season.

Since Jan. 26, Bogdan Bogdanovic appeared in 35 games (34 as a reserve), averaging 17.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.4 APG and 1.4 SPG in 29.6 MPG (.443 FG%, .385 3FG%, .868 FT%). His 17.4 PPG and 1.4 SPG ranked 2nd amongst all bench players over that time.

Game Trends

  • Hornets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Hornets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
  • Hornets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday games.
  • Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
  • Hawks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Hornets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

Expert Prediction
Hawks 120, Hornets 116