Iowa State vs No. 3 Iowa

Iowa State vs No. 3 Iowa | 2020 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Written by on December 10, 2020

State bragging rights are on the line Friday night when Iowa State of the Big 12 and Iowa of the Big Ten renew their annual rivalry. The third-ranked Hawkeyes are the vastly superior side this season on paper and thus will be heavily favored on the NCAAB odds at home.

How to Bet Iowa State at Iowa NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

Last meeting

Last season, the schools played in Ames and Iowa rolled 84-68. Luka Garza had 21 points and 11 rebounds and led five Iowa players scoring in double figures as Iowa snapped an eight-game losing streak at Hilton Coliseum. The Hawkeyes hadn’t won in the Cyclones’ home since a victory in the 2003 NIT. Joe Wieskamp had 13 points, Jordan Bohannon and Connor McCaffery each scored 12, and CJ Fredrick added 11. Tyrese Haliburton led Iowa State with 22 points. He was a first-round NBA Draft pick a few weeks ago.

Iowa leads the all-time series 46-27. ISU has won seven of the last 11 meetings in the series, but Iowa has claimed the last two contests.

Why Bet on Iowa State? | 2020 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Cyclones (1-1) haven’t played since Dec. 2 when they were upset 71-68 at home by South Dakota State – ISU was to play Sunday vs. DePaul but that was canceled.

Against SDSU, Cyclones erased a 15-point deficit in the final 10 minutes of the game but couldn’t quite get all the way back. With 0:22 to play, Javan Johnson went to the line and knocked down two free throws, pulling the Cyclones within one, 67-66. The Jackrabbits hit their free throws down the stretch, though, to hang on.

Johnson had 13 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and zero turnovers against SDSU, just the 10th different Cyclone to reach those numbers in a game since 1996-97. Senior Solomon Young turned in a great performance in the loss with 24 points on 11-17 shooting from the floor. He had five rebounds blocked one shot and nabbed a steal on the defensive end.

ISU shot just 4-for-23 behind the arc, connecting on two in each half, and it was one of the worst 3-point shooting games of the Steve Prohm era. The Cyclones shot 68 percent on 2-point field goals and are shooting 63.4 percent inside the arc this season.

Rasir Bolton is one of just four players nationally averaging at least 13.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 6.0 apg with multiple games played. Bolton also has a 4.00 A/TO ratio and is third in the Big 12 in FG% (57.1) and first in steals (3.0). Johnson (6.5) and Bolton are second and fourth, respectively, in the Big 12 in assists per game. Both are also among the top-5 in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio, while the Cyclones are third as a team at 1.40 A/TO.

Coach Prohm has had success against ranked teams in the past as he owns a school record five road wins against top-25 teams and his seven career wins against AP Top-10 teams are tied for the second-most in school history behind Johnny Orr (12.)

Why Bet on Iowa? | 2020 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Hawkeyes (4-0) were very impressive in a 93-80 win over No. 17 North Carolina on Tuesday in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Iowa hit 17 three-pointers, all of them coming from just three players. The total was is the most all-time in ACC/Big Ten Challenge history. The 17 triples also tied for the third-most all-time against North Carolina.

Jordan Bohannon made seven 3s (and eight field goals) en route to a team-high 24 points to go along with six assists. CJ Fredrick scored 16 points in the first half and finished with 21 points with five 3-pointers, while Joe Wieskamp scored 19 on 7-of-12 shooting – 5-of-7 from long range – to go along with nine rebounds and five assists.

All-American big man and National Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza posted his 24th career double-double, finishing with 16 points and 14 rebounds. North Carolina head coach Roy Williams compared Garza to Tar Heel great Tyler Hansbrough in his postgame news conference. Playing for Williams, Hansbrough was an ACC Rookie of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, and he swept the National Player of the Year Awards in 2008.

The Hawkeyes posted a higher field goal percentage (42.9 to 40.6) and made 11 more 3-pointers than the Tar Heels. Iowa assisted on 22 of 34 field goals and forced North Carolina into committing 18 turnovers. Iowa has won 17 of its last 18 games inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The Hawkeyes have won 68 of their last 73 nonconference home games, dating back to 2012.

Iowa returns a large percentage of its production from last season: scoring (81%), rebounding (76%), assists (77%), steals (83%), and blocks (67%). Iowa is one of eight schools from Power 5 conferences to have at least 65 percent of its production return from the previous season.

Expert Prediction

  • Iowa 82, Iowa State 71
 
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