No. 17 Oklahoma State vs #3 Baylor

No. 17 Oklahoma State vs #3 Baylor | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Written by on March 4, 2021

It could be a trap game for No. 3 Baylor on Thursday against surging and No. 17 Oklahoma State as the Bears clinched the Big 12 regular-season title on Tuesday in a terrific game vs. West Virginia. Baylor is a double-digit favorite, though, on the NCAAB odds vs. the Pokes. Baylor is +475 to win the national title and Oklahoma State is not currently a betting option.

How to Bet Oklahoma State at Baylor NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 7 PM ET
  • Where: Ferrell Center
  • TV: ESPN2
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio:com
  • Opening NCAAB Lines: Baylor -11.5

Last Meeting

On Jan. 23 in Stillwater, Baylor beat Oklahoma State 81-66. The Cowboys didn’t have superstar freshman Cade Cunningham that day yet still led for most of the first 28 minutes. However, Jared Butler drained three-consecutive 3-pointers in a decisive 19-1 run as the Bears turned a two-point deficit into a 16-point lead. Butler had 22 points and six assists, connecting on all five of his second-half attempts from 3-point range. Senior forward Mark Vital was a near-perfect 8-of-9 from the floor and finished with a career-high 19 points. Matthew Alexander-Moncrieffe had a double-double for the Cowboys with 13 points and 10 rebounds.

The Cowboys lead the overall series, 55-33, although Baylor has won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Why Bet on Oklahoma State? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

The Cowboys (17-6) won their fifth in a row Monday and completed the sweep of rival Oklahoma, 79-75. Cade Cunningham, a freshman who leads the Big 12 in scoring, had 40 points in Saturday’s 94-90 overtime win and then 13 of his 15 in the final 10 minutes on Monday.  Cunningham has connected on 41.8 percent of the 98 3-pointers he’s attempted and has made 11 of 27 over his last five games. He’s also converted 85.4 percent of his free throws this season. Kalib Boone had 17 points and nine rebounds, and Bryce Williams scored 14 for the Cowboys, who won their fifth straight game overall and earned their third consecutive win over a ranked opponent. Oklahoma State’s last loss vs a ranked opponent came against then-No. 2 Baylor on Jan. 23.

The Cowboy rank second in the Big 12 in blocks (4.4), field goal percentage (.460) and field goal percentage defense (.406). According to KenPom, OSU has the fastest tempo in the league (72.6 possessions/40) and they rank 21st nationally in defensive efficiency. OSU averages 15.6 fast-break points per game.

Oklahoma State is tied for the national lead with eight N.E.T. Quadrant-1 victories. The Cowboys also own six wins over Associated Press top-25 squads – only Kansas and Iowa have more. OSU’s seven road wins are also tied for the most by a power conference team.

The Cowboys have shown a remarkable ability to peak at the right time under Mike Boynton. Under the fourth-year head coach, the Cowboys are 10-4 (.714) in March and 13-7 (.650) over the final two weeks of the regular season.

Isaac Likekele is averaging 11.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists in five career games against Baylor. He is questionable for this one with an injury that has kept him out since Feb. 22.

Why Bet on Baylor? | 2021 NCAA Basketball Expert Analysis

Baylor (19-1) bounced back from its first loss of the season with a wild 94-89 OT win at No. 6 West Virginia on Tuesday to clinch the program’s first Big 12 title in the 25-year history of the league and the first conference championship since winning the old Southwest Conference in 1950.

Third-ranked Baylor made its last four shots in overtime and got a couple of late free throws from Adam Flagler and Davion Mitchell. In a game that had 10 lead changes and nine ties, it came down to a handful of WVU miscues that Baylor managed to capitalize on.

After Taz Sherman hit one of two free throws to give the Mountaineers an 89-88 lead in OT, Mitchell put Baylor back on top with a driving layup. The Bears then forced two-straight turnovers, with Mark Vital getting a steal and Mitchell taking a charge from Miles McBride with 27.3 seconds left. Free throws by Mitchell and Flagler put the game away.

“They made shots when they had to make shots and we didn’t, they made free throws when they had to and we didn’t and they basically made plays,” West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. “They’re a much more veteran team than we are and we kind didn’t do what we needed to do when we needed to do it.”

Baylor finished with a 13-10 edge in second-chance points despite getting outrebounded, 36-31. Mitchell and Matthew Mayer scored 20 and 18 points, respectively, while MaCio Teague chipped in with 11.

For this one, Baylor has won its last nine home games, scoring an average of 89 points while giving up 62.1. The Baylor offense has scored 85.4 points per game this season overall, ranking the Bears fourth among Division 1 teams.

Expert Prediction

  • Baylor 80, Oklahoma State 75

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