Arkansas vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 12 Spread & Pick

Arkansas vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 12 Spread & Pick

Written by on November 16, 2018

Really a largely meaningless game in the SEC on Saturday when No. 21 Mississippi State hosts Arkansas. The Hogs are one of the conference’s worst teams and playing out the string, while the Bulldogs are simply trying to improve their bowl opportunities. Mississippi State comes in as huge NCAAF Betting favorite.


Arkansas vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 12 Spread & Pick



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Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 16°C/60°F
  • Humidity: 54%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 22%
  • Wind: 2 mph SSW
  • Stadium Type: Open


Last Season

The Hogs lost 28-21 at home to Mississippi State in 2017. Nick Fitzgerald accounted for three touchdowns and totaled 254 yards in the win, finishing 12-of-23 passing for 153 yards and rushing 22 times for 101 yards. It wasn’t until he connected with Deddrick Thomas for a 6-yard touchdown with 17 seconds remaining that the Bulldogs had their first lead of the game. David Williams led Arkansas with 75 yards rushing on eight carries, while Allen completed 11 of 17 passes for 119 yards.


The Razorbacks lead the all-time series against the Bulldogs, 16-11-1, with the first matchup coming in 1916 in Memphis, Tennessee. Arkansas has won only once in the last six meetings with Mississippi State, claiming a 58-42 win in the most recent trip to Starkville in 2016. Each of the last four losses to MSU has come by seven points or fewer.


Why Bet on Arkansas?

The Razorbacks lost 24-17 at home to LSU last week. Cheyenne O’Grady recorded an 11-yard touchdown reception from Ty Storey with 12:37 remaining in the fourth quarter to move the score to 24-10. He would follow it up with a 32-yard TD catch from Storey with 5:27 left in the final frame to pull the game to 24-17 but that would be it. The two scores increased Arkansas’ total to 17 touchdown receptions this season.


The Razorbacks managed a season-low 216 yards of total offense — including only 16 yards on the ground — while losing their ninth straight SEC game dating to last season. They are the only school in the SEC without a conference victory this season. Storey completed 19 of 38 passes for 200 yards and those two touchdowns to tight end O’Grady.


Arkansas linebackers Dre Greenlaw (12) & De’Jon Harris (12), along with safety Santos Ramirez (10) all posted double-digit tackle performances against LSU on Nov. 10. It was the third time this season the trio has accomplished the feat, also doing so against Texas A&M (9/29) and Alabama (10/6). Harris leads the SEC in tackles and ranks 17th nationally with his 105 stops, while Santos Ramirez is ninth in the league with 74 and Greenlaw’s 72 tackles in eight games is the 10th best mark in the SEC.


Greenlaw also leads all active players in the league with 312 tackles, while the group remains the top tackling trio in the SEC with 251 stops in 2018.


Compared to the first 10 games of last season, Arkansas is averaging a better red zone scoring percentage (91% to 86%), more passing touchdowns (17 to 16), field goals (17-of-21 to 7-of-10), tackles for loss (64 to 38), sacks (26 to 14), forced fumbles (14 to 10), fumble recoveries (9 to 7), PBUs (39 to 37), QBH (27 to 20) & fewer points allowed per game (32.7 to 35.8) in 2018 than 2017.


This will be the 14th game between the two teams in Starkville. Arkansas holds a 7-6 advantage in games played in the Magnolia State. The last matchup with the Bulldogs in Starkville featured a 300-yard passer (Austin Allen) & two 100-yard rushers (Rawleigh Williams III & Devwah Whaley) for the Razorbacks.


Why Bet on Mississippi State?

No team has played Alabama better this year than MSU, which lost 24-0 last week to the No. 1 Tide. Despite being unable to find much success offensively, the MSU defense played a very inspired contest against the potent UA attack, holding the Crimson Tide offense to its lowest offensive output of the season (305 total yards) – Alabama had amassed over 500 yards in every game this season prior to Saturday. The Tide’s 24 points were a season-low (29 vs. LSU was the previous low) and the team came in averaging 51.3 points per game.


Heading into the game, Alabama had allowed just six sacks all season. Mississippi State recorded four sacks, including a career-high two by Willie Gay Jr. With Braxton Hoyett’s fumble recovery in the second quarter, Mississippi State has recorded at least one turnover in 13-straight games. With Willie Gay Jr’s interception in the third quarter, the Bulldog defense has recorded an interception in nine of 10 games this season.


Bob Shoop’s defensive unit has allowed the fewest touchdowns in the nation (12), and they rank fifth in the FBS in scoring defense (13.5 ppg) behind only Clemson (12.7), Alabama (12.7), Michigan (12.9) and UAB (13.2). Mississippi State has surrendered just five touchdowns in opponents’ last 64 possessions dating back to the third quarter of the Florida game. Shoop is a nominee for the Broyles Award, which is awarded annually to the best assistant coach in college football. DE Montez Sweat ranks tied for fourth in the FBS and tied for second in the SEC in sacks this season (9.5). The Bednarik Award semifinalist is also the FBS active leader in sacks per game at 0.87.


Among active Power 5 players at all positions, QB Nick Fitzgerald ranks sixth in career rushing yards (3,302), tied for second in career rushing touchdowns (42), fourth in career total touchdowns responsible for (91), eighth in career total offense yards (9,119) and tied for second in career 100-yard rushing games (19). He has 10 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns in nine games played this season.


3 Reasons to Bet for Alabama in the 2018 Playoffs


Arkansas vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 12 Betting Trends

  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Mississippi State
  • Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
  • Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings
  • Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Arkansas is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arkansas’s last 9 games
  • Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
  • Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games at home


Expert Prediction for Arkansas vs Mississippi State

Take the points as MSU will be looking ahead to next week’s Egg Bowl.