College Football Betting Analysis: North Western vs. Wisconsin

College Football Betting Analysis for Week 5: Northwestern vs. Wisconsin

Written by on September 27, 2017

According to the College Football Betting Odds for Week 5, the Northwestern Wildcats will look to pull off the big upset over the 10th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers when the two rivals square off in their Big Ten battle on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. Now, let’s find out if the Badgers can hold down the fort at home to win and cash in while keeping the conference championship and four-team playoff hopes alive. The Badgers arrives as 14,5 point favorites. Now, let’s find out if the Badgers can hold down the fort at home to win and cash in while keeping the conference championship and four-team playoff hopes alive.

Wildcats vs. Badgers College Football Betting Analysis for Week 5

When: Saturday, September 30, 2017, 12:00 PM ET Where: Camp Randall Stadium TV: ABC Radio: 720 AM (North Western) / 99.7 (Wisconsin) Live StreamBig Ten Network NCAAF Odds: Wisconsin Badgers -14.5 Total: 50.5

NCAAF Odds and Expert Score Prediction: USC vs. Washington State

Recent Head to Head (Last 10 Games)

  • Record: Series is tied 5-5
  • Score: North Western 19 / Wisconsin 29.80
  • Rush Yards: North Western 149.80 / Wisconsin 200.10
  • Pass Attempts: North Western 32.60 / Wisconsin 27.40
  • Completion Percentage: North Western 52.45 / Wisconsin 61.68
  • Passing Yards: North Western 201.90/ Wisconsin 213.30
  • Total Yards: North Western 351.7 / Wisconsin 413.4
  • Turnovers: North Western 1.60 / Wisconsin 2.20

Why Bet the Northwestern Wildcats Odds at +14.5?

The best reason to back Northwestern in this Week 5 Big Ten battle is that they’re getting two touchdowns as road dogs. The Wildcats rolled all over Bowling Green in their 49-7 Week 4 blowout to cover the college football betting line as a 21-point home favorite as quarterback Clayton Thorson completed 23 of 30 passes for 370 yards and two touchdowns and running back Justin Jackson ran wild to the tune of 121 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries. Now, the Wildcats will look to use that same formula to take down the undefeated Badgers and ruin their four-team playoff hopes. For his part, Jackson has racked up a stellar 4,437 career rushing yards and sits just 108 yards shy of the all-time school record set by Damien Anderson from 1997 to 2000. Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald said he saw Jackson’s potential as soon as he arrived on campus as a freshman years ago. “He wasn’t the biggest guy, but his work ethic was unbelievable in those early practices,” Fitzgerald said. “We had a wide-open job and there was great production in the room (at that time). “Did I think he was going to win the job right away? No. To his credit he did and he’s had it from the get-go. He’s had a lot of pretty special performances.” For the season, Thorson is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 22.7 points and 410.3 yards per game.

Team Statistics


  • Average Score For: 32.33
  • Total Yards: 459
  • Rush Yards: 160.33
  • Passing Yards: 298.67


  • Average Score Against: 22.67
  • Total Yards: 410.33
  • Rush Yards: 157
  • Passing Yards: 253.33

Why Bet the Wisconsin Badgers Odds at -14.5?

The best reason to back Wisconsin in this contest is that they’re playing at home, have a stingy defense and some legitimate conference championship and four-team playoff hopes they want to keep alive. The Badgers rolled all over BYU in their 4-6 Week 3 win to easily cover the chalk as a 14-point road favorite as quarterback Alex Hornibrook went a near-perfect 18-for19 for 256 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while running back Jonathan Taylor rushed 18 times for 128 yards and one touchdown. Taylor leads the Big Ten in rushing and ranks fifth nationally in yards per game at 146.0 yards per contest. The Badgers are favorites on the College Football Odds for Week 5. “I think Jonathan’s continued to grow and get better,” Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said. “And certainly, he did a lot from the time he came in to give himself a chance to be ready and add to the team this fall. I think that all of our backs can complement each other. I’m anxious to see if Bradrick can do more this week.” For the season, Hornibrook is completing a blistering 70 percent of his passes for 701 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception while Taylor has 53 carries for a team-high 438 yards and five scores. Defensively, Wisconsin is limiting the opposition to just 10.0 points per game to rank fifth nationally in points allowed.

Team Statistics


  • Average Score For: 43.33
  • Total Yards: 511
  • Rush Yards: 275.33
  • Passing Yards: 235.67


  • Average Score Against: 10
  • Total Yards: 248
  • Rush Yards: 90.67
  • Passing Yards: 157.33

Latest College Football Betting Trends

  • Wildcats are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
  • Wildcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northwestern’s last 7 games on the road
  • Badgers are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Badgers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wisconsin’s last 8 games

Expert Analysis and Prediction

While I really like the direction the Northwestern football program is headed in and believe they’ve only going to get better in the future under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, I just can’t bring myself to pick them to cover the spread after seeing how they got smacked around by Duke in their 41-17 road loss to the Blue Devils on Sept. 9. The Wildcats are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September while Wisconsin has gone 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against Northwestern. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook is blossoming before our very eyes, making the Badgers the pick to win and cover the college football betting line. Pick: Wisconsin -14.5
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