Florida vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 5 Odds & Analysis

Florida vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 5 Analysis

Written by on September 28, 2018

While it is certainly open to argument, the general consensus is that the SEC is the toughest conference in college football. Winning the SEC is no easy feat, but since it is so tough, the teams in that conference have a bit of an edge in that the playoff committee tends to be a little more forgiving. It is possible to end the season with 2 losses and still be in the playoffs, which is not something that you can necessarily say about the rest of the Power 5.
The way things are going this season, though, there look to be a couple of teams who might be able to get through the regular season and the SEC Championship Game unscathed or with just a single loss. The means that the pressure is very heavy on the Florida Gators and Mississippi State Bulldogs this weekend, as both have already dropped a conference game. Ironically enough, those losses came at the hands of the same team, the Kentucky Wildcats. The Bulldogs are in as a 7-point favorite here, with the point total set at 49.

Florida vs Mississippi State NCAA Football Week 5 Odds & Analysis


Iowa State at TCU NCAA Football Week 5 Odds & Game Preview


Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 24°C/76°F
  • Humidity: 68%
  • Precipitation: 2%
  • Cloud Cover: 49%
  • Wind: 2 mph NE
  • Stadium Type: Open

Why bet on the Florida Gators?

The Gators have looked much better on the offensive side of the football under Dan Mullen than they have in the last few years, but they were held in check when it really mattered, losing 27-16 to Kentucky in Week 2 of the season. To make matters worse, it was the first time that the Gators had lost to Kentucky in over 30 years, proving that this team still has some way to go before they can get back to the top of the heap.
Outside of that game, the Gators have been a good bet this season, covering the spread in their 3 other games this year. The road has not been quite as kind to Florida, though, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips away from home. They have had similar issues against Mississippi State on the road, going just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 visits there.

Team Stats

  • Average Score For: 41.00
  • Total Yards: 383.00
  • Rush Yards: 188.50
  • Passing Yards: 194.50
  • Average Score Against: 16.00
  • Total Yards: 338.25
  • Rush Yards: 187.75
  • Passing Yards: 150.50

Why bet on the Mississippi State Bulldogs?

Mississippi State has had a start to the season that is incredibly similar to their opponent this weekend. The offense looked unstoppable through the opening 3 weeks of the season, averaging 50 PPG, but they too were brought back down to earth by Kentucky who held them to just 7 points last weekend.
  Florida vs Mississippi State should end up with a Bulldogs victory.  
It’s now fair to suggest that this is a must-win game for the Bulldogs, especially when you consider that Alabama and LSU are both unbeaten in conference play in the SEC West Division. You have to like this team at home, as they have won 9 of their last 11 games in their own building. They are also 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 games overall, so they also look like a decent bet there.

Team Stats

  • Average Score For: 39.25
  • Total Yards: 491.00
  • Rush Yards: 247.75
  • Passing Yards: 243.25
  • Average Score Against: 13.50
  • Total Yards: 269.25
  • Rush Yards: 121.00
  • Passing Yards: 148.25

Ole Miss vs LSU NCAA Football Week 5 Spread & Analysis


Latest Florida vs Mississippi State NCAAF Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Florida is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida’s last 9 games on the road
  • Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Florida vs Mississippi State

This is a huge game, as it will essentially serve as an SEC eliminator, so expect there to perhaps be some nerves early on. I think the Bulldogs will use home field to their advantage, winning and covering the spread.
Score: Florida Gators 20 – Mississippi State Bulldogs 30
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