Arkansas at Mississippi State Odds, Betting Pick & TV Info

LSU at Auburn Free Pick & Betting Spread

Written by on September 22, 2016

I think it’s pretty simple for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn: if his team doesn’t upset No. 18 LSU on Saturday evening in SEC action, then Malzahn is all but fired by Auburn after this season because his Tigers will be 1-3 and have a tough road to even finish .500. LSU is a slight favorite on NCAA football lines.

Here’s a Closer Look at the LSU at Auburn Free Pick, Betting Spread & TV Info

When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 6 PM ET
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn
Opening NCAA Football Lines: LSU +3.5 (46)

Why Bet on LSU?

The Tigers (2-1, 1-0 SEC) beat Mississippi State 23-20 last week. Leonard Fournette had 147 rushing yards and scored twice and first-time starting quarterback Danny Etling threw for 215 yards, as LSU built a 20-point lead before holding off a rally. Mississippi State used an onside kick recovery to score twice in 40 seconds late in the fourth quarter. However, LSU linebacker Arden Key came up with LSU’s fifth sack of the night and forced a fumble to seal the victory.

Etling, a junior transfer from Purdue, completed 19-of- 30 passes with a touchdown. He wasn’t sacked, ran for 23 yards on three carries and didn’t throw an interception. He became the 13th straight Tiger quarterback to win his first start in Tiger Stadium. Fournette ran 28 times with touchdown runs of 5 and 25 yards in the first half. LSU is 14-3 when Fournette reaches the 100-yard mark, which includes a 9-1 record in SEC games.

Defensively, under first year coordinator Dave Aranda, LSU has allowed just four TDs in the first three games and is limiting opponents to 16.3 points and 325.7 yards per game (103.3 rushing, 222.3 passing). The Tigers have recorded 11 sacks with Key leading the way with an SEC-best 5.

LSU has won four of the last five, seven of nine and eight of 11 against Auburn dating back to 2005. Last year, Fournette rushed for 228 yards and 3 TDs in leading LSU to a 45-21 win over Auburn in Tiger Stadium. With 8 wins over Auburn, Les Miles has more wins over the Tigers than any coach in LSU history.

Why Bet on Auburn?

Auburn AD Jay Jacobs was insistent this summer that Malzahn will be his coach for “a long, long time” and even gave him an extension and a raise. That means nothing. Auburn has lost 12 of its last 18 games against FBS opponents and 10 of its last 12 SEC games. Malzahn’s continued juggling of quarterbacks with no apparent strategy is only hurting his cause. Malzahn admitted this week his play-calling hasn’t been very good. The defense has kept Auburn in games.

“I fully understand our fan base is disappointed, and they should be,” he said Tuesday. “The bottom line is we’ve got to coach our players better, and that starts with me. The fact is, we’re close. As a matter of fact, we’re real close to being a good team and we’re going to get this thing turned around.”

During each of Auburn’s two losses this season, which Malzahn said have "probably hurt me worse than any of the others,” the Tigers (1-2, 0-1 SEC) have been unable to stay on the field due in large part to a high number of third-and- long situations. the Tigers rank last among 128 FBS teams with 32 tackles for loss allowed. Included in that are nine sacks.

Sean White, who will make his third start at quarterback Saturday, coming after John Franklin III finished up against Texas A&M last week in the 29-16 loss. One of the Auburn highlights was the play of Tony Stevens, who had a career-best eight catches for 86 yards. Kamryn Pettway rushed for 123 yards. White hit 18-of- 27 passes for 126 yards. Franklin rushed nine times for 47 yards. He was 4-of- 8 passing for 27 yards. Auburn’s defense held Texas A&M to 2-of- 15 (13.3%) on third downs, the lowest since holding LSU to 0-for- 13 in 2014.

My Free Pick

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Auburn.
Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.

Take LSU and the under in NCAA Football betting.