Can Penn State Avoid Late Heroics to Cover NCAAF Spread Against Indiana?

Michigan State at Indiana Odds & Expert Pick

Written by on September 29, 2016

Michigan State looked like a College Football Playoff contender and a legit threat to repeat as Big Ten champion. But then the now-No. 17 Spartans were blown out at home by Wisconsin. Sparty looks to bounce back on Saturday at Indiana and is favored in NCAA Football betting lines.

How To Bet on the Michigan State at Indiana Odds, Expert Pick & TV Info

When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 8 PM ET
Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind.
TV: Big Ten Network
Opening NCAA Football Lines: MSU -6.5 (52.5)

Why Bet on Michigan State?

The Spartans (2-1) were slammed by No. 11 Wisconsin 30-6 last week. The Badgers were the better team in the first half and then outscored the Spartans 17-0 in the third quarter. MSU QB Tyler O’Connor finished 18 of 38 for 224 yards and three interceptions. Michigan State outgained Wisconsin, 325-317, and had more first downs (21-15). The Spartans were limited to 75 yards rushing and had 250 yards passing.

MSU was minus-2 in the turnover department. The Spartans committed four turnovers (three interceptions, one fumble), which led to 13 Wisconsin points. Michigan State had its nine-game home winning streak snapped. It marked MSU's first home loss since Nov. 8, 2014 (Ohio State).

The Spartans could be without two starting linebackers in this game. Jon Reschke will miss significant time with an ankle injury, while defensive leader and All-Big Ten selection Riley Bullough is still listed day to day after missing the Wisconsin game. Reschke has 13 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble this season.

MSU is 26-10 (.722) in Big Ten road games under Mark Dantonio, including a 20-4 record (.833) since 2010. Dantonio has won at least one road game at every Big Ten stadium. O’Connor will be making his third career road start on Saturday. O’Connor is 2-0 on the road as the starting quarterback, with wins over No. 2 Ohio State last season and No. 18 Notre Dame on Sept. 17.

MSU currently has a seven-game winning streak over the Hoosiers, including a 52-26 win in Spartan Stadium last season. With a win, the Spartans would tie their longest winning streak in series history vs. Indiana (MSU won eight in a row over IU from 1950-57).

Why Bet on Indiana?

The Hoosiers (2-1) come off a 33-28 home loss to Wake Forest as the Hoosiers turned it over five times. Ricky Jones put together a career performance, tallying career-highs in receptions (8) and yards (208). Jones becomes the sixth receiver in IU football history to tally 200-plus receiving yards in a single game. Sophomore Nick Westbrook recorded the second 100-yard game of his career and in succession with 129 yards on six receptions. He also reached the end zone twice, 75- and 10-yarders, for the second straight game.

Richard Lagow became the fifth Hoosiers quarterback with 400-plus passing yards in a single game. Lagow finished with a school record 496 yards and three touchdowns on 28 completions. The Hoosiers had 611 yards of offense to go along with the school record 496 passing yards, marking the 18th time in school history that Indiana has surpassed the 600-yard mark (10th under head coach Kevin Wilson). Indiana streak of eight consecutive regular season non-conference victories came to an end.

IU leads the Big Ten in passing offense (334.0, T-13th nationally) and is 2nd in total offense (516.7, 16th). Westbrook leads the Big Ten in receiving yards per game (110.7, 14th nationally), is 2nd in receiving TDs (4, T-16th), yards per catch (22.1, 18th) and yards (332, 36th), and 5th in receptions per game (5.0). The Old Brass Spittoon has been awarded to the winner of the Indiana-Michigan State football game since the trophy’s inception in 1950.

My Expert Pick

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indiana.
Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Indiana.

Take MSU and the over in NCAA Football betting lines.