Listen in to Nick Saban wired as he and the Crimson Tide prep for the National Championship. https://t.co/aAD3oK3tKM
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) January 7, 2016
Why the Total Will Stay UNDER 51
The Sooners entered their CFP semifinal matchup against the Tigers averaging 52.0 PPG over their last seven contests, yet by the end of the game, they were reduced to just 17 points in a convincing 37-17 win for Clemson. The manner in which Clemson’s defense showed poise in that game, especially in the second half, was nothing short of spectacular. That, of course, was not a one-time, as Dabo Swinney’s defense has been playing admirable football on that side of the ball, surrendering 20.2 PPG (good for 18th in the nation). Meanwhile, solid defense is a name that has been synonymous to Nick Saban’s Alabama throughout the season (minus that forgetful game against Ole Miss), a key reason the Tide finished the season ranked third in the nation in defense, giving up just 14.4 PPG. This defense was on full showcase in their 38-0 CFP playoff semifinal win over Michigan State. Mind you, the No. 3 Spartans had entered that game averaging over 32 PPG scoring (good for 50th in the nation in scoring offense), so shutting them out was every bit of a big deal as it looks. With these two defensive powerhouses clashing against each other on Monday, there is therefore a good case to be made that an UNDER 51 total could be in the offing. After all, majority of the teams faced by Clemson in the ACC aren’t the kind of teams you’d particularly call defensive powerhouses, so the Tigers’ offensive showcases so far must be taken with a pinch of salt. As for Bama, Jake Coker is still far from an elite QB, something that is affirmed by the fact that his 286 passing yards (on 25-of-30 passing) against Michigan State was his career-high yardage output. Take away star running back Derrick Henry and his Heisman numbers, you get a very average offense and a passing game that can be contained by Clemson’s defense, thus setting up the likelihood of a low-scoring UNDER affair.Why the Total Will Go OVER 51
If by now you don’t know about Alabama’s Heisman winner Henry and the fact that he was the best rusher in the season, then you need to find a hole and hide in it until the Monday’s National Championship is over. Including Alabama’s semifinal game, Henry has splendidly rushed for 2,061 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns, and has been Alabama’s go-to guy in the offense this season. With Coker (67.1 percent completed passes for 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season) rarely being dependable in his passing game, you can expect Henry to get a lot of touches of the ball, as he’s constantly done in all of Alabama’s big games. As a note, though, Coker is coming off his best game against the Spartans, where he ran for two TDs and also threw for two TDs (both to Calvin Ridley, who’s collected 83 catches and seven touchdowns this season). The young QB could therefore be up for another big game in the offense this Monday. Plus, with Alabama’s offense decently averaging 34.4 PPG and 423.8 YPG total, the entire team should be more than capable to hold its own against Clemson’s tough-but-permeable offense.