Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Preview & Expert NFL Week 11 Betting Pick.

Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Preview & Expert NFL Week 11 Betting Pick

Written by on November 17, 2017

There are times when injuries to key players can derail a team and its chances of making it into the postseason, but there are also times when those losses really don’t make that much difference. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were already having a pretty awful season before Jameis Winston went down with injury, and they would likely have drifted to a poor finish to the season even if he was still under center, still, there are some reasons to consider them as your NFL Week 11 betting pick. You also have to wonder how much of a difference Ryan Tannehill would have made to the Miami Dolphins had he not gone down before the season began. A few years into his life in the NFL, the jury is still somewhat out on Tannehill, although it’s fair to say that he is still probably a better option than Jay Cutler or Matt More, the guys who replaced him. The Bucs are out of the playoff picture completely, but the Dolphins may still be able to find a way in if they can win the majority of their remaining games. The bookies have this meeting down as a pick play, with the point total for this one set at 41.

Tampa Bay (3-6) at Miami (4-5) Preview & Expert NFL Week 11 Betting Pick

  • When: Sunday, November 12, 1 PM EST
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
  • TV: FOX
  • Radio: 620 AM (Tampa Bay) / 1590 AM (Miami)
  • Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
  • NFL Odds: PK-110 (Over/Under 41.5)

Weather Forecast

  • Clear: 28°C/82°F
  • Humidity: 44%
  • Precipitation: 0%
  • Cloud Cover: 25%
  • Wind: 9 mph WNW
  • Stadium Type: Open

Mexican Standoff: Patriots are NFL Lines Favorites vs. Raiders in Week 11

Recent Head to Head (Last 5 Games)

  • Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 4-1
  • Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23.80 / Miami Dolphins 18.20
  • Rush Yards: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 130.00 / Miami Dolphins 79.40
  • Pass Attempts: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.80 / Miami Dolphins 36.40
  • Completion Percentage: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 64.91 / Miami Dolphins 56.04
  • Passing Yards: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 167.00 / Miami Dolphins 206.80
  • Total Yards: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 297.00 / Miami Dolphins 286.2
  • Turnovers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.20 / Miami Dolphins 2.00

Why should the Buccaneers be your NFL Week 11 Betting Pick?

This was supposed to be a breakout year for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it has proven to be anything but. The Bucs had a solid season in 2016, as the talented young players on this squad all started to come good at the same time. The addition of veteran talent, including DeSean Jackson, in the offseason, had a lot of people talking about Tampa as a potential dark horse, but they have been nothing short of awful. Jameis Winston has taken a lot of heat for the problems, and while some of it is certainly deserved, there is a lot of blame to go around. This is a team that has not looked particularly good on either side of the football, and the talk now is that Dirk Koetter may be living on borrowed time as the head coach. Tampa Bay has just 1 win in their last 6 games, and are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, but the good news is that they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games versus Miami.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 19.22
  • Total Yards: 345.23
  • Rush Yards: 82.56
  • Passing Yards: 262.67
  • Average Score Against: 23.11
  • Total Yards: 376.33
  • Rush Yards: 109.89
  • Passing Yards: 266.44

Why should the Dolphins be your NFL Week 11 Betting Pick?

After going through a stretch where they won 3 straight games, the Miami Dolphins are now riding a 3-game streak in the opposite direction, and are giving up points at a rather alarming rate. Jay Cutler has been decent in his return from injury, but he is getting zero help from a defense that has given up 112 points in those last 3 defeats. Playing at home, the Dolphins should be your NFL Week 11 Betting Pick. You simply cannot win games on a consistent basis in this league when giving up that many points, although the Dolphins may have the opportunity to stop the bleeding this weekend against a Tampa team that, like the Dolphins, has struggled to put points on the board all season long. Given how the AFC is going this year, the Dolphins are still in the playoff hunt, but that could end with a loss this weekend. Miami is a solid 7-3 in their last 10 home games, although just 2-2 at home this season.

Team Statistics

  • Average Score For: 15.22
  • Total Yards: 275.00
  • Rush Yards: 80.11
  • Passing Yards: 194.89
  • Average Score Against: 24.89
  • Total Yards: 341.22
  • Rush Yards: 116.22
  • Passing Yards: 225.00

Latest NFL Week 11 Betting Trends

  • Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games
  • Buccaneers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games
  • Dolphins are 1-2-2 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Dolphins are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami’s last 9 games at home

Expert NFL Week 11 Betting Pick and Final Score Prediction

I think the Dolphins find a way to get the job done in this one, but I do think it will be close. This also seems like a game that is a pretty good bet to go UNDER the 41 point total. Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Miami Dolphins 21