Dallas vs New Orleans TNF Expert Analysis & NFL Betting Pick

Dallas vs New Orleans TNF | Expert Analysis & NFL Betting Pick

Both the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints lost on Thanksgiving and they try again this Thursday night facing one another from the Big Easy. Dallas is favored on the NFL odds despite the fact the Cowboys will be without their head coach.

How to Bet Cowboys at Saints NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 8:20 PM ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome
  • TV: Fox/NFL Network
  • Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
  • Stream Option: Fox Sports Go/NFL Network app
  • Opening NFL Lines: Cowboys -4.5 (total 47.5)

Last Meeting

Dallas leads the all-time series 17-13, but New Orleans has won nine of the last 13 meetings dating to the 1998 season. The teams last met in 2019 and the Saints won 12-10 home win on “Sunday Night Football.”  It was the Saints’ first win since the 1998 season without scoring a touchdown.

Why Bet on Dallas?

The Cowboys were upset 36-33 in overtime last Thursday vs. Las Vegas. Daniel Carlson kicked a 29-yard field goal in overtime after Anthony Brown’s fourth pass-interference penalty kept the drive alive. Carlson’s career-best fifth field goal came after Brown was called for interference on Zay Jones on third-and-18.

“By that time, I wasn’t even trying to put my hands on the guy,” Brown said. “I guess it was an underthrown ball. You know, receivers are taught to jump back into the DB. So, I really don’t know. He grabbed the back of my helmet. I had my hands up. I just have to turn my head, I guess. I have to get my head around as quick as possible.”

All four of Brown’s interference penalties came on third-down incompletions — an 11-yard penalty while covering Bryan Edwards, a 30-yard penalty while covering DeSean Jackson, a 17-yard penalty while covering Jackson and a 33-yard penalty while covering Zay Jones. Dallas’ 14 penalties for 166 yards set a franchise record for most penalty yards in a game.

Dak Prescott completed 32-of-47 passes for 375 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. Prescott played without his two top receivers in Amari Cooper (COVID) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion). Prescott’s lone mistake was a costly one, overthrowing Malik Turner on third down in overtime and forcing the team to punt.

Lamb will play Thursday but it’s no sure thing that Cooper will.  Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said Cooper is “not feeling the best” and was noncommittal about Cooper’s Week 13 availability.

“My gut would be if he doesn’t practice [Wednesday], I don’t see him going to the game,” McCarthy said of the unvaccinated Cooper, who has missed two games after testing positive for the virus on November 19. McCarthy himself and a few assistant coaches will miss this game due to COVID.

Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn will serve as the Cowboys’ interim coach Thursday. Quinn served as Atlanta’s head coach for parts of six seasons from 2015-20, posting a 43-42 regular-season record and taking his team to Super Bowl LI. He was fired last season and has rejuvenated a Dallas defense that was coming off a season in which it allowed a franchise record for points. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and special teams coordinator John Fassel also will be heavily involved.

Why Bet on New Orleans?

The Saints have lost four consecutive games and a victory is essential this week to climb back to .500 and remain in the hunt for a playoff berth. The Saints still find themselves within one game of a playoff spot entering Week 13.

New Orleans was clobbered 31-6 last Thursday by Buffalo. Trevor Siemian completed 17-of-29 passes for 163 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the loss. Siemian led the Saints’ offense to a performance of 3.3 yards per play and 190 total yards. Their lone score was an 11-yards strike to Nick Vannett after the game was mostly out of hand. Backup QB Taysom Hill did not play a snap as he was working his way back from his concussion and dealing with a plantar fascia injury.

The New Orleans offense was decimated by injuries last week. The Saints played without their two top running backs (Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II), their starting quarterback (Jameis Winston), their star receiver (Michael Thomas), their All-Pro right tackle (Ryan Ramczyk), their Pro Bowl left guard (Andrus Peat) and their top tight end (Adam Trautman).

Siemian has completed 57.64% of his passes for 924 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions in the four straight loss. However, Hill apparently is healthy now and likely will start this week. The do-it-all Hill has thrown just eight passes this season, completing seven for 56 yards and an INT.  Hill started four games last season and pushed Winston for the starting gig all summer, so the expectation was that Hill would start once Winston’s season ended but it has been Siemian.

When asked about Thursday’s starting quarterback, Saints coach Sean Payton responded, “We’ll see.” Getting Kamara, Ingram, and potentially Ramczyk back this week (all three are dealing with knee injuries) would be huge for a Saints offense that bottomed out without them vs. Buffalo. All are trending toward a return.

Defensive end Cameron Jordan has 15.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss in 11 career games on Thursday. With one sack, he would reach five sacks for the 10th-consecutive season

Game Trends

  • Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
  • Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
  • Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
  • Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
  • Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Cowboys 27, Saints 24

 

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