After pulling off an absolutely stunning upset win a week ago, Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins will look to get another upset victory when they hit the road to face Kirk Cousins and a Minnesota Vikings team that will be in all-out desperation mode after hitting the skids recently.
Will the Fins get the big road win or ATS cover or will Minnesota take care of business to cover the chalk as a home favorite of slightly more than a touchdown
Let’s get to my expert Week 15 NFL pick right now.
Dolphins vs Vikings NFL Week 15 Lines & Expert Pick
#DolphinsDaily. pic.twitter.com/ZE4DKr53z5 — Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 12, 2018
- When: Sunday, December 16 at 1:00 PM ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- TV: CBS
- Radio: Miami / Minnesota
- Live Stream: NFL Live
- NFL Week 15 Odds: Minnesota -8 / Total: 44
- Clear: 2°C/35°F
- Humidity: 70%
- Precipitation: 2%
- Wind: 9 mph WNW
- Cloud Cover: 9%
- Type of Stadium: Indoor
Why Bet on Miami at +8?
Why should you consider betting on Miami as an 8-point road dog in this contest? Well, there’s the fact that the Dolphins have won two straight and three of their last five games, including their confidence-boosting 34-33 win over New England last weekend.
Miami has won two straight and pulled off one of the most improbable wins of the entire 2018 campaign by beating New England 34-33 on a last-second trick play. Kenyan Drake ran 52 yards for a score on the game’s final play off a double lateral and Ryan Tannehill passed for 265 yards and three touchdowns to get the win. Running back Brandon Bolden added a pair of rushing score for the Fins in the win. The Dolphins average 21.4 points per game (22nd) while allowing 25.6 points per contest defensively (26th).
“I collapsed — just the emotion of the whole thing,” Tannehill said.
Then, there’s the fact that Minnesota is playing some mediocre football and high-priced quarterback Kirk Cousins clearly isn’t living up to expectations when it matters most. The Vikings have scored 10 points or less in each of their last two games, so Miami clearly isn’t facing an offensive juggernaut.
- Average Score For: 21.38
- Total Yards: 310.54
- Pass Yards: 201.23
- Rush Yards: 109.31
- Average Score Against: 25.62
- Total Yards: 401.08
- Pass Yards: 261.62
- Rush Yards: 139.46
Why Bet on Minnesota at -8?
Why should you consider betting on Minnesota as an 8-point home favorite? There are some good reasons even though Minnesota is struggling right now. First and foremost, Minnesota will be completely desperate. The Vikings have lost two straight and three of four and come into this contest off a uninspiring 21-7 road loss to Seattle as a 3-point underdog. Kirk Cousins passed for 208 yards with one touchdown, but the Vikings got shut out for the game’s first three quarters and couldn’t muster up enough offense to get overcome their early deficit.
“I feel like all of our losses we, as an offense, we are so slow,” Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen said. “Our defense is keeping us in games. And we’re not pulling our side of the bargain.”
Another good reason to back Minnesota is that they still have a very good defense and a bunch of playmakers on offense like Adam Thielen and Stephon Diggs. The Vikings average 21.7 points per game (20th) while allowing 22.4 points per game defensively (11th).
- Average Score For: 21.69
- Total Yards:
- Pass Yards: 269
- Rush Yards: 85.38
- Average Score Against: 22.38
- Total Yards:
- Pass Yards: 215.62
- Rush Yards: 108.08
NFL Week 15 Betting Trends
- Miami is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games
- Miami is 0-5 SU in the last 5 games on the road
- The total went UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games
- Minnesota is 5-9-2 ATS in the last 16 games
- Minnesota is 2-4 SU in the last 6 games
- The total went UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games
Expert Analysis and Prediction for Dolphins vs Vikings
I’m going to get right to the point by saying that I like Minnesota to get the narrow win, but Miami to cover the chalk. Miami looks like a team that is going to put up a fight this weekend and Minnesota just doesn’t have the kind of explosive offense that can put the Dolphins away. Minnesota is playing at home and they’re completely desperate – and that’s the only reason I’m going to advise you to back them to get the SU win in this Week 15 matchup.
Miami has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of December. While Minnesota has gone a winless 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record. The spread for this contest is a few points too high NFL betting buffs. Back the Fins to cover the spread!
NFL Week 15 Pick: Minnesota 27 Miami 24