Falcons vs Saints NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Odds & Preview

Falcons vs Saints NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Odds & Preview

Written by on November 21, 2018

A few firsts on Thanksgiving night when the New Orleans Saints host the NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons. It’s the first-ever meeting between the teams on the holiday and the first time the Saints host a Turkey Day game. They are huge NFL betting favorites to extend the longest winning streak to 10.

Falcons vs Saints NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Odds & Preview

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Weather Forecast

  • Partly Cloudy: 13°C/56°F
  • Humidity: 72%
  • Precipitation: 2%
  • Cloud Cover: 40%
  • Wind: 6 mph E
  • Stadium Type: Indoor

First Meeting

New Orleans won a wild game in Atlanta in Week 3, 43-37 in OT. Drew Brees’ 1-yard run capped an 80-yard touchdown drive to open overtime. That TD came after Brees’ 7-yard score late in the fourth quarter forced the overtime. After the Saints won the coin toss, Brees and the Saints held the ball for more than seven minutes. Brees passed for 396 yards and three touchdowns and ran for two scores. Alvin Kamara had 15 catches for 124 yards and ran for 66 yards. Matt Ryan threw for nearly 374 yards and five scores, and Calvin Ridley became the first Atlanta rookie with three scoring catches.

Thursday marks the 100th overall meeting between the two teams (including the postseason), with Atlanta leading the series 52-47. The Falcons will make their third appearance on Thanksgiving and first since 2007.

Why Bet on Atlanta?

A team that entered the season touted to be a Super Bowl contender and possibly the first squad to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium now sits at 4-6. Only 12 teams out of 163 since 1990 have qualified for the playoffs after starting 4-6.

Atlanta looks to rebound following a Week 11 loss to Dallas. Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones had six catches for 118 yards and a touchdown last week. Jones leads the NFL with 1,158 receiving yards this season and has 46 career games with 100+ receiving yards, the most by a player in his first eight seasons in NFL history.

Matt Ryan completed 24-of-34 passes for 291 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the loss. It was Ryan’s first sub-300 yards day since Week 5. The Falcons didn’t get into the red zone until the second half as the teams traded field goals the first three quarters. Ryan’s interception was a drop by Calvin Ridley that clanged up into the air for Leighton Vander Esch. Ryan is averaging 330.6 passing yards per game this season, the highest mark in the NFL, and is the only player in the league averaging 300+ passing yards and completing at least 70 percent of his passes (71.1 percent). Ridley caught 3-of-4 targets for 32 yards vs. Dallas. Ridley has just one touchdown since September and has topped 50 yards only once since Week 4. Ridley has 39 catches for 532 yards and seven touchdowns on the year.

“I think mentally he’s in a good place,” Ryan said of Ridley for Thursday. “There are ups and downs through every season for all of us and I think he’s handled that really well. I expect him to play well.” Falcons coach Dan Quinn said linebacker Deion Jones (foot) is moving well, but they still want to see him generate more power. Jones has been out since undergoing foot surgery following the season opener. It’s not likely he plays Thursday.

Why Bet on New Orleans?

The Saints are an NFL-best 8-2 ATS and have covered eight straight games.

No team looks better than the Saints right now on their nine-game winning streak. They destroyed the Super Bowl champion Eagles 48-7 last week. Drew Brees threw for 363 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 153.2 passer rating.

Brees has 23 career games with at least four touchdown passes and zero interceptions, including two this season, surpassing New England’s Tom Brady (22) for the most such games by a quarterback in NFL history. Brees set the record for highest completion percentage in 2017 when he completed 72 percent of his throws. He’s on pace to shatter that record this season.New Orleans, which has won nine consecutive games and sits atop the NFC South with a 9-1 record, has scored at least 40 points in six games this season, the most by a team in its first 10 games of a season in NFL history.

Falcons vs Saints is the best Thanksgiving game of 2018.

Mark Ingram rushed 16 times for 103 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints’ Week 11 win. Ingram set the tone on his opening carry, going for 38 yards to help spark a field-goal drive. His first touchdown came on a 14-yard rush early in the second quarter, and he scored from one yard out in the third. Ingram has now topped 100 yards in each of the last two games. Alvin Kamara rushed 13 times for 71 yards and turned his only target into a 38-yard touchdown.

Tre’Quan Smith hauled in 10-of-13 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown in the win. Coming off a zero target game against the Bengals, Smith exploded in this matchup. And Smith had a total of just 12 catches for 214 yards and three touchdowns on the entire season heading into Sunday’s game against Philadelphia. His previous career highs were three catches and six targets. Michael Thomas caught all four of his targets for 92 yards and a touchdown.

The Saints are averaging an astounding 4.4 offensive touchdowns per game. By comparison. The record-setting 2007 Patriots averaged 4.0 per game.

Redskins vs Cowboys NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Lines

Falcons vs Saints NFL Week 12 Betting Trends

  • Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings
  • Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans
  • Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings
  • Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New Orleans
  • Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games on the road
  • New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans’s last 10 games at home

Expert NFL Betting Prediction for Falcons vs Saints

Too many points – Falcons can hang within 10.