Packers vs. Bucs

Packers vs. Bucs: Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady For Last Time? | 2020 NFL Expert Analysis

Written by on October 16, 2020

It’s two legendary quarterbacks facing off for perhaps the final time in their Hall of Fame careers on Sunday as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers visit Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs. Brady is a rare home underdog on the NFL odds. He last was in 2014.

How to Bet Packers at Bucs NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium
  • TV: Fox
  • Radio:
  • Stream Option: TV
  • Opening NFL Lines: Packers -1 (total 55.5)

Series History

Green Bay is 32-21-1 all-time vs. Tampa Bay in the regular season and 1-0 in the playoffs. In Tampa, though, the Packers are 13-14. Green Bay has won three consecutive games against Tampa Bay dating back to the 2011 season. They last met on Dec. 3, 2017, at Lambeau and the Pack won 26-20 in OT. This is Green Bay’s first visit to Tampa since a 20-3 win in 2014 in Week 16.

This will mark the third time that Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have faced off as starting quarterbacks. The first meeting took place in 2014 in Green Bay, with Rodgers and the Packers defeating the Brady-led Patriots, 26-21. Brady and New England got the best of Rodgers and the Packers in Foxborough in 2018, winning 31-17.

Why Bet on Green Bay? | 2020 NFL Expert Analysis

The Packers (4-0) are one of four unbeatens left and lead the NFL in scoring at 38.0 ppg. They beat Atlanta 30-16 in their final game before the bye. Rodgers completed 27-of-33 passes for 327 yards and four touchdowns.

Last season, Rodgers passed for 26 touchdowns, while throwing only four interceptions, tied for the fewest among qualified quarterbacks in 2019. Through his first four games in 2020, Rodgers is tied for third in the league with 13 touchdown passes, while being the only qualified passer to not throw an interception.​ With at least two touchdown passes and zero interceptions on Sunday, Rodgers would become the first player in NFL history with at least two touchdown passes and zero interceptions in each of his team’s first five games of a season.

Rodgers will also get back Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams, who hasn’t played since Week 2 due to injury. Adams, who caught a career-high 14 passes in the season opener before he suffered his injury in Week 2, practiced this week as a full participant. The Packers have won all six games that Adams has missed the past two seasons. They played without their top two wide receivers against the Falcons because Allen Lazard was placed on injured reserve following core muscle surgery. Lazard is out for a while.

The Packers have started 4-0 for the 13th time in franchise history and the first time since 2015. The previous two times the Packers had a Week 5 bye, they followed it up with a win in 2009 and a loss in 1995. Dating back to 2000, this will be the 12th time that Green Bay will play a road game in the week following the bye. The Packers have won six of the contests. Of the previous 11 games, eight have been decided by single digits, including two overtime contests.

Green Bay is on a nine-game regular-season winning streak, the longest current streak in the NFC and Green Bay’s longest winning streak since 2010-11 (15 games). It is tied for the fifth-longest regular-season winning streak in franchise history.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay? | 2020 NFL Expert Analysis

The Bucs (3-2) were upset 20-19 in Chicago on Thursday night in Week 5. Tom Brady completed 25-of-41 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown. Brady took three sacks and many more hits behind a penalty-prone offensive line, and he was lucky to escape without any interceptions. The game ended on one of the worst mistakes of Brady’s career, as he took a reckless chance over the middle of the field. Brady thought the play had occurred on third down but it was fourth down.

Brady is currently next to last in the league with 2.5 QBR under pressure. Only Dwayne Haskins (1.5) has been worse so far this year. Brady’s QBR from a clean pocket is also surprisingly low, due to turnovers. A QBR of 75.7 from a clean pocket ranks Brady 17th among the NFL’s 33 qualified quarterbacks. Dating to 2018, Brady has failed to cover his last eight starts (0-7-1 ATS) vs. teams multiple games above .500.

Pro Bowl WR Mike Evans was questionable for Week 5 with an ankle injury but caught a TD pass. Evans is tied the league lead with six touchdown receptions in 2020, while being the only player with at least one touchdown reception in five games this season. With a touchdown reception on Sunday, Evans will become the fourth player with at least one touchdown reception in each of his team’s first six games of a season since 1970.

The Bucs are hoping to get back fellow Pro Bowl wideout Chris Godwin, who has been banged up all season. Godwin has only played in two of five games, the last in Week 3. He has been practicing on a limited basis this week.

Tampa has lost stellar defensive tackle Vita Vea for the season from an injury suffered in Week 5. Vea suffered a broken ankle with 1:39 remaining, when teammate Devin White rolled up on his right leg as the two were making a tackle of Bears running back David Montgomery. Vea was then carted off the field. Vea, a first-round pick by the Buccaneers in 2018, has two sacks in five games this season. He is a fabulous run-stopper. Tight end OJ Howard was placed on season-ending injured reserve before the Week 5 game.

Game Trends

  • Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.
  • Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
  • Buccaneers are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.

Expert NFL Prediction

Packers 30, Bucs 27


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